Two undefeated featherweights collide when Tommy McMillen faces Marwan Rahiki in one of the most intriguing prospect-versus-prospect fights on the card.
McMillen enters at 11-0 after consecutive stoppage wins over Alberto Montes and Manolo Zecchini. Rahiki is 9-0 and has yet to hear the final bell as a professional, finishing all nine opponents.
There is plenty to like about both fighters, but they get their results in very different ways. McMillen overwhelms opponents with pressure and volume. Rahiki is the cleaner and more dangerous technical striker.
Something has to give in our Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki prediction.
Someone’s 0 has to go
The UFC is putting two genuine featherweight prospects against each other before either has had the chance to climb deep into the rankings. This is power and precision against pressure and attrition.
McMillen and Rahiki both came through Dana White’s Contender Series before building momentum in the UFC. The winner moves another step closer to the Top 15 and could emerge as one of the division’s breakout names.
The stylistic stakes are just as interesting. Rahiki has finished every opponent he has faced, with eight knockouts and one submission. McMillen, meanwhile, relies on a relentless pace that can become increasingly difficult to handle as a fight progresses.
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Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki odds
McMillen is currently around a -170 favorite, with Rahiki returning approximately +145. McMillen originally opened closer to -140, while Rahiki was available around +120, so the market has gradually moved toward the American.
The total is much tighter, with Under 2.5 Rounds at -110 and Over 1.5 Rounds around -175. Rahiki by KO/TKO can be found between +225 and +275, while McMillen by KO/TKO is priced around +180 to +210. McMillen by submission is the bigger long-shot option at roughly +450 to +550.
Can McMillen survive the danger long enough to take over?
McMillen’s biggest weapon is not one particular punch or technique. It is the amount of pressure he forces opponents to deal with.
He constantly walks forward, puts combinations together in the pocket and attacks the body. He is willing to turn fights into exhausting exchanges and appears comfortable maintaining a pace that many featherweights cannot match.
His recent results show that pressure translating into finishes. McMillen stopped Alberto Montes in Round 3 in July and Manolo Zecchini with a first-round knee in April.
There is also another potential weapon that McMillen rarely shows. McMillen has a wrestling background, but he does not regularly build his game around takedowns. His own comments ahead of the fight suggest he is more interested in trading with Rahiki than turning this into a grappling match.
That could be dangerous as McMillen is hittable. He has been badly hurt before, including during his Contender Series appearance, and walking through big shots becomes a much riskier strategy against someone with Rahiki’s accuracy and power.
His path to victory is therefore fairly clear: survive the dangerous opening exchanges, keep forcing Rahiki backward and make this fight increasingly uncomfortable as the minutes pass.
Rahiki has the weapons to punish McMillen early
Rahiki is arguably the more complete technical striker. He has sharp punches, dangerous elbows and knees in close range and a much wider kicking arsenal. He is comfortable attacking off the back foot and does not need to constantly pressure forward to create damaging opportunities.
More importantly, he carries legitimate finishing power. Rahiki is 9-0 with nine finishes. His recent run includes a first-round stoppage of Ollie Schmid, a second-round corner stoppage against Harry Hardwick and a second-round TKO over Ananias Mulumba on Contender Series.
That makes McMillen’s defensive openings a major concern. Rahiki should have opportunities to land clean counters as McMillen closes distance. If he can hurt him early and prevent McMillen from establishing his rhythm, the underdog could end this fight quickly.
The questions come if he cannot. Rahiki has been hit himself, and McMillen is unlikely to stop advancing simply because he loses the first few exchanges. His defensive grappling could also become a problem if McMillen changes his usual approach and mixes in takedowns. Rahiki needs to make his technical advantage count before McMillen turns the fight into a war of attrition.
Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki prediction
Rahiki may look like the better fighter during the opening minutes. His striking is cleaner, his attacks are more varied and McMillen gives opponents enough defensive openings that it would not be surprising to see the American hurt early.
The question is what happens if McMillen survives. McMillen’s pace should become increasingly important once the initial danger passes. He can force Rahiki into longer exchanges, attack the body and make him work at a tempo he does not normally have to maintain.
There is also the possibility of McMillen finally using more of his wrestling if the striking exchanges become too dangerous.
This is close enough that Rahiki at plus money is tempting. But McMillen has already shown an ability to fight through difficult moments, and his pressure gives him a more reliable path if the fight extends beyond the opening exchanges.
Expect Rahiki to land the biggest shots early before McMillen begins to take over with volume and pressure.
Official Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki prediction: Tommy McMillen via TKO, Round 2.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Best bets for Tommy McMillen vs Marwan Rahiki
The McMillen moneyline has become difficult to recommend at -170. This is a competitive matchup, and Rahiki has enough finishing upside to make laying that price uncomfortable. The better UFC betting angle is Under 2.5 Rounds at -110.
Rahiki has finished all nine of his professional fights, while McMillen has four stoppages across his last five appearances. Both fighters are aggressive, both can be hit, and their contrasting styles should create plenty of exchanges.
For bettors who want a bigger price that matches the prediction, McMillen by KO/TKO at +180 to +210 is more appealing than his moneyline.
Best bet: Under 2.5 Rounds (-110)
Value prop: Tommy McMillen by KO/TKO (+180 to +210)