Alex Perez and Sumudaerji will run it back in a flyweight rematch after their first meeting ended prematurely with a No Contest. Here are my official predictions for Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji.
A rematch with important consequences for each fighter
Their May 2026 fight was stopped in the second round following an accidental low blow from Sumudaerji. There was no official winner, but the unfinished fight gave us a useful glimpse at how these two match up.
Perez had success early and actually won the opening round on two of the three judges’ scorecards. However, Sumudaerji appeared to be gaining momentum in the second. The Chinese striker scored a knockdown and was beginning to find Perez more consistently with his length and jab.
The betting market clearly took notice. Perez entered their first fight as the slight favorite, but Sumudaerji is now a sizeable favorite in the rematch.
Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji odds
| Fighter | American odds | Decimal odds |
| Sumudaerji | -225 | 1.44 |
| Alex Perez | +185 | 2.80 |
Sumudaerji enters the rematch as a clear -225 (1.44) favorite, with Alex Perez at +185 (2.80). That is a major shift from their first meeting, when Perez was the slight favorite at around -142 at most UFC betting apps.
The change largely reflects what happened before the accidental foul. Perez edged the opening round on two scorecards, but Sumudaerji was beginning to find his range in the second, landing his jab more consistently and scoring a knockdown.
That movement is largely understandable. Bettors saw Sumudaerji beginning to take control before the foul, and his physical advantages remain difficult for Perez to overcome. However, the price also creates some risk. The first round was competitive, and Perez officially won it on two judges’ scorecards. Sumudaerji was gaining momentum, but it would be a mistake to assume the remainder of the fight was predetermined.
The total UFC odds is much closer, with Over 2.5 rounds priced at -130 (1.77) and Under 2.5 at +100 (2.00). There are also some interesting method-of-victory props. Sumudaerji by decision is +210 (3.10), while Sumudaerji by KO/TKO is also available at +210 (3.10).
For bettors looking at the underdog, Perez by submission is in the +550 to +650 range, offering a much bigger price if he can turn his wrestling advantage into a finish.
Where to bet on Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji
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Alex Perez is looking to make adjustments
Perez remains one of the more frustrating fighters in the flyweight division to evaluate. At his best, he can compete with elite opposition. His recent results include first-round knockout victories over Charles Johnson and Matheus Nicolau, while he also had competitive stretches against Asu Almabayev and Tatsuro Taira.
He also showed in the first Sumudaerji fight that he can win minutes. The problem was how Perez applied his pressure. He frequently chased Sumudaerji with big hooks and overhands rather than cutting off the Octagon. Against a fighter with Sumudaerji’s footwork, that resulted in Perez swinging at air and using unnecessary energy.
Perez needs to be more patient this time. Instead of constantly trying to land the knockout punch, he should pressure behind combinations and mix in his wrestling. Perez has the stronger grappling credentials and averages more than two takedowns per 15 minutes. Making Sumudaerji worry about level changes could also make it easier for Perez to close the distance on the feet. Perez is dangerous enough that Sumudaerji cannot afford to switch off. One clean shot could completely change this fight.
Sumudaerji has the clear striking advantage
Sumudaerji doesn’t need to completely reinvent his approach for the rematch. His length, movement and distance management caused Perez increasing problems as their first fight progressed. Once he began establishing his jab, Perez struggled to enter the pocket cleanly.
Sumudaerji eventually scored a knockdown in the second round before the accidental foul brought the fight to an early conclusion. The biggest adjustment for Sumudaerji should be increasing his output earlier.
Perez won the first round on two scorecards, and Sumudaerji cannot afford to spend too much time simply collecting information. Establishing the jab immediately would force Perez to work harder to close distance and could punish him whenever he launches into another aggressive combination.
Recent form also favors Sumudaerji. Before the No Contest against Perez, he had put together three consecutive decision victories over Mitch Raposo, Kevin Borjas and Jesus Aguilar. Perez, meanwhile, has been far more inconsistent.
Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji prediction
Perez is capable of making the necessary adjustments. He can wrestle, carries legitimate knockout power and has already shown that he can win rounds against Sumudaerji.
Still, the physical and stylistic advantages favor Sumudaerji. He is the bigger and younger fighter, enters with the better recent record and should have a significant advantage when this fight stays at kickboxing range. Perez’s tendency to aggressively chase opponents could again play directly into Sumudaerji’s movement and counterstriking.
The first fight showed Sumudaerji gradually getting his reads before finding more success in Round 2. This time, I expect him to settle into his range earlier. Perez will remain dangerous, particularly with his wrestling and power, but as the fight progresses, Sumudaerji’s jab, reach and cleaner distance striking should begin to take over. In this UFC prediction I’m backing Sumudaerji to hurt Perez again, but this time there will be no accidental foul to interrupt the finish.
Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji prediction: Sumudaerji by KO, round 3
Best betting angle
The moneyline on Sumudaerji is difficult to love at -225, so looking at the method of victory offers more upside. Sumudaerji by decision is available around +210, which makes sense considering his recent run. His three victories before the Perez fight all went to the scorecards, and his movement can make him difficult to pin down for extended periods.
However, there is another angle worth considering. Sumudaerji by KO/TKO is also around +210. He already hurt Perez in their first meeting, and Perez’s aggressive entries give the longer striker opportunities to catch him coming forward. That is the side I prefer.
| Prediction | Pick |
| Pick | Sumudaerji |
| Method | KO/TKO |
| Confidence | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ |
| Best Bet | Sumudaerji by KO/TKO (+210) |