UFC 330 predictions: Full fight picks, best bets and odds

UFC 330 is stacked with interesting betting fights, including two title bouts at the top of the card. Islam Makhachev defends the welterweight championship against Ian Machado Garry in the main event, while Mackenzie Dern puts the women’s strawweight title on the line against Gillian Robertson.

Further down the card, Jalin Turner faces dangerous Brazilian Kauê Fernandes, Mansur Abdul-Malik looks to rebound from the first defeat of his career against Dustin Stoltzfus, and UFC legend Edson Barboza has been handed the unenviable task of fighting Esteban Ribovics.

I have already broken down these fights individually. Now it is time to put everything together. Here are my UFC 330 predictions, best bets and confidence ratings.

UFC 330 predictions cheat sheet

Fight	Pick	Method	Confidence	Best bet
Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry	Islam Makhachev	Decision	⭐⭐⭐⭐☆	Makhachev by Decision (+135)
Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson	Mackenzie Dern	Submission, R3	⭐⭐⭐⭐☆	Dern ML
Jalin Turner vs Kauê Fernandes	Jalin Turner	KO/TKO, R1	⭐⭐⭐⭐☆	Turner by KO/TKO (+175)
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus	Mansur Abdul-Malik	KO/TKO, R2	⭐⭐⭐⭐☆	Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO
Edson Barboza vs Esteban Ribovics	Esteban Ribovics	KO/TKO, R1	⭐⭐⭐⭐☆	Ribovics by KO/TKO

Best bets for UFC 330

There are several enormous favorites on this card, so blindly building a moneyline parlay does not interest me. The method-of-victory markets offer considerably better prices.

My favorite UFC 330 betting angles are:

• Islam Makhachev by decision (+135) – Garry is extremely difficult to finish, but Makhachev should win enough grappling exchanges to take a decision.
• Jalin Turner by KO/TKO (+175) – Turner has a huge size advantage and Fernandes can be hit while closing distance.
• Mansur Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO (-105 to +110) – A much better price than laying -650 on his moneyline.
• Esteban Ribovics by KO/TKO (+115 to +185) – Ribovics’ pressure and durability are a nasty combination for the 40-year-old Barboza.
• Mackenzie Dern ML – Robertson’s best route to victory repeatedly puts the fight in Dern’s most dangerous area.

Where to bet on UFC 330

Islam Makhachev vs Ian Machado Garry prediction

Makhachev is sitting around -350 to -390, while Garry can be found between +260 and +280. The champion deserves to be favored, but laying almost -400 against a 6’3″ welterweight with excellent movement, an 80% takedown-defense rate and a four-inch reach advantage is difficult to love.

Garry should have success at range. He is longer, moves well and should be able to defend plenty of Makhachev’s initial takedown attempts. The problem is that he does not necessarily need to be dominated to lose rounds.

One Makhachev takedown can change a close five-minute period. A minute of cage control could do the same.

That is particularly important because Garry can be extremely patient. We saw against Shavkat Rakhmonov how extended periods against the fence can cost him rounds even when relatively little damage is being done. Against Makhachev, those small positional battles could decide the fight.

I expect Garry to make this competitive. I would not be shocked if it is 2-2 heading into the fifth. But over 25 minutes, I trust Makhachev to find enough takedowns, clinch control and grappling sequences to edge the rounds he needs.

Prediction: Islam Makhachev by unanimous decision

Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆

Best bet: Makhachev by decision (+135)

The decision prop is much more attractive than paying -350 or worse on Makhachev’s moneyline. Garry has never been finished professionally, making another five-round decision a very realistic outcome.

Full prediction:

Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry prediction and odds: Can Garry stop Islam’s wrestling?

Mackenzie Dern vs Gillian Robertson prediction

This could become one of the strangest grappling matchups on the card. Robertson may actually be the better wrestler. That normally gives a fighter a clear route to victory against Dern, whose takedown game has never matched the level of her Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

But there is a problem. Does Robertson really want to take Mackenzie Dern down? Robertson owns the record for the most submission victories in UFC women’s history and has built a five-fight winning streak. She should be confident initiating grappling exchanges. Yet every takedown potentially puts her directly into Dern’s most dangerous area.

Dern does not need top position to create offense. She can attack submissions, sweep, reverse and turn seemingly bad positions into dangerous ones. Robertson could control her for a round. Maybe even two. Doing it repeatedly for 25 minutes without making a mistake is a completely different challenge.

I also give Dern an advantage on the feet. Her boxing has improved, and she carries enough power to make Robertson uncomfortable if the challenger decides not to wrestle. Eventually, I expect Robertson to give Dern the grappling opportunity she needs.

Prediction: Mackenzie Dern by submission, Round 3

Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆

Best bet: Mackenzie Dern ML

Full prediction

Mackenzie Dern vs. Gillian Robertson prediction and odds: Can Robertson survive Dern’s guard?

Jalin Turner vs Kauê Fernandes prediction

This is one of my favorite fights on the UFC 330 card. Turner opened around -180, but money on Fernandes has pushed him down toward roughly -155 to -162. Fernandes is available around +130 to +145.

I understand the movement. Turner has been inconsistent, briefly retired and has historically become considerably less dangerous when opponents survive his opening attacks. Fernandes also has a weapon that could become increasingly important as the fight develops: low kicks.

The Brazilian absolutely needs to attack Turner’s lead leg. But first he needs to survive. Turner is 6’3″ with a 77-inch reach and remains one of lightweight’s most dangerous early finishers. He knocked out King Green and most recently stopped Edson Barboza in the opening round.

Fernandes will give up roughly six inches in height and four inches in reach. More importantly, he can be hit while entering range. That is a dangerous habit against Turner. If Fernandes survives the first ten minutes, I like his chances considerably more. His low kicks could compromise Turner’s movement, and we have seen Turner struggle when fights become exhausting. I just don’t trust Fernandes to get that far.

Prediction: Jalin Turner by KO/TKO, Round 1

Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆

Best bet: Jalin Turner by KO/TKO (+175)

Full prediction

Jalin Turner vs Kauê Fernandes prediction and odds: Can Fernandes survive Turner’s early firepower?

Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus prediction

The odds tell us this should be one of the easiest UFC 330 predictions. Abdul-Malik is around -650, with Stoltzfus sitting at approximately +475. I certainly would not recommend paying that price on the favorite.

But there is an interesting question surrounding Abdul-Malik. How does he respond to his first professional defeat? Yousri Belgaroui did not simply catch him with one shot. Abdul-Malik was forced into adversity, absorbed significant damage and was eventually stopped in the third round. Before that, his fight against Cody Brundage had also ended in a majority draw after the original result was overturned.

Stoltzfus needs to test those doubts. He is experienced, tough and capable of making fights ugly. If he survives the explosive opening attacks and forces Abdul-Malik into another difficult second and third round, things could become interesting.

The problem is his defense. Abdul-Malik is younger, faster and considerably more explosive. He can attack with conventional combinations but also throws flying knees, spinning attacks and other unpredictable strikes. Eventually, I expect Stoltzfus to get caught.

Prediction: Mansur Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO, Round 2

Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆

Best bet: Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO (-105 to +110)

Full prediction:

Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Dustin Stoltzfus prediction and odds: Can Abdul-Malik bounce back?

Edson Barboza vs Esteban Ribovics prediction

I don’t particularly like this matchmaking for Edson Barboza. The UFC legend is now 40 years old, has lost three straight and was knocked out by Jalin Turner in just 2:24 in his most recent appearance. Now he gets another younger, aggressive and extremely dangerous striker.

Ribovics is around -650 to -700, while Barboza sits at approximately +475 to +500. The Argentine reportedly opened much closer to -350/-400 before the market heavily backed him. There is still one reason to be careful.

Barboza can end a fight from nowhere.Ribovics gets hit. He is willing to exchange and often trusts his durability. Even at 40, Barboza remains capable of landing a spinning kick, knee or body shot that changes everything. His best opportunity is probably in the opening few minutes.

After that, I strongly favor Ribovics. The Argentine has the youth, pace, durability and volume to pressure Barboza and prevent him from comfortably operating at kicking range. Once Ribovics starts forcing prolonged boxing exchanges, I expect the difference between the two fighters to become increasingly obvious.

Prediction: Esteban Ribovics by KO/TKO, Round 1

Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆

Best bet: Ribovics by KO/TKO

Full prediction:

Edson Barboza vs Esteban Ribovics prediction and odds: Is this too much for the UFC legend?

UFC 330 prelim predictions

The UFC 330 prelims feature an interesting mix of veterans, prospects and several difficult betting fights. Chidi Njokuani meets late replacement Joel Álvarez at welterweight, while Neil Magny, Vicente Luque and Jeremiah Wells are among the other experienced names on the undercard.

Here are my UFC 330 prelim predictions.

Chidi Njokuani vs Joel Álvarez Prediction

Álvarez is stepping in on short notice and moving up against a very big welterweight in Njokuani. That makes the -325 price uncomfortable, especially if this becomes a pure striking fight.

The biggest difference is on the ground. Álvarez is an extremely dangerous submission threat, and if Njokuani initiates any grappling or gives up a bad position, things could end quickly. On the feet, I still slightly favor Álvarez’s durability and ability to take over as the fight develops.

Pick: Joel Álvarez
Method: KO/TKO
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆

Charles Johnson vs Eduardo Chapolin Prediction

This is basically a pick’em, with Johnson at -120 and Chapolin at +100. Johnson remains experienced and extremely active, but all those fights may finally be catching up with him. His durability and reactions aren’t what they once were, and this looks like a dangerous matchup against the younger Brazilian.

Chapolin should be able to damage Johnson at multiple levels and gradually take control.

Pick: Eduardo Chapolin
Method: KO/TKO
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆

Donte Johnson vs Eric McConico Prediction

Here is my first real upset pick. Johnson is unbeaten and sits around -300, but I am still not completely sold on him at middleweight. His athleticism and power are dangerous, yet technically there are holes McConico can exploit.

McConico’s biggest problem is his chin. One clean Johnson connection could make this prediction look terrible. But if he avoids that shot, I think his movement, reactions and overall striking skill can frustrate the favorite.

Pick: Eric McConico
Method: Decision
Confidence: ⭐⭐☆☆☆

Vicente Luque vs Tresean Gore Prediction

This is an ugly fight to predict. Luque is unquestionably the more accomplished and technically polished fighter, but there has been enough decline that I don’t trust him anymore. Gore is still raw, but he brings power, toughness and considerably less mileage.

At -110 each, I’ll take the younger fighter to eventually hurt Luque.

Pick: Tresean Gore
Method: KO/TKO
Confidence: ⭐⭐☆☆☆

Rafael Tobias vs Lucas Fernando Prediction

Neither fighter has proven much at UFC level, which makes Fernando’s -280 price difficult to get excited about.

Tobias should have the grappling advantage, while Fernando is the cleaner and more dangerous striker. Unless Tobias can consistently establish top position, I expect Fernando’s striking to decide the fight.

Pick: Lucas Fernando
Method: KO/TKO
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆

Neil Magny vs Ramiz Brahimaj Prediction

Magny is the more complete fighter. He has better cardio, more experience and should have a significant advantage if this becomes an extended striking fight.

Brahimaj, however, has exactly the weapon that has historically caused Magny problems: submissions.

At this stage of Magny’s career, I would rather back the younger fighter with the greater early finishing upside. Brahimaj should aggressively hunt the back and look for a choke before Magny can drag him into deep waters.

Pick: Ramiz Brahimaj
Method: Submission
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆

Jeremiah Wells vs Myktybek Orolbai Prediction

Not much controversy here. Orolbai is an enormous -1100 favorite against Wells at +700. Wells is powerful, physical and dangerous enough to create some uncomfortable moments early, but the wrestling gap should eventually become overwhelming.

Orolbai should repeatedly put Wells on his back and break him down as the veteran tires.

Pick: Myktybek Orolbai
Method: KO/TKO or Submission, Round 2
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐

UFC 330 prelim predictions cheat sheet

Fight	Pick	Method	Confidence
Njokuani vs Álvarez	Joel Álvarez	KO/TKO	⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Johnson vs Chapolin	Eduardo Chapolin	KO/TKO	⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Johnson vs McConico	Eric McConico	Decision	⭐⭐☆☆☆
Luque vs Gore	Tresean Gore	KO/TKO	⭐⭐☆☆☆
Tobias vs Fernando	Lucas Fernando	KO/TKO	⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Magny vs Brahimaj	Ramiz Brahimaj	Submission	⭐⭐⭐☆☆
Wells vs Orolbai	Myktybek Orolbai	Finish	⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐