The main event of UFC Freedom 250 is everything a fight fan could ask for. Two champions. Two knockout artists. One undisputed lightweight title.
Ilia Topuria enters the White House card undefeated and fresh off a first-round knockout of Charles Oliveira. Across the cage stands Justin Gaethje, the interim champion and one of the most violent fighters the sport has ever seen.
The betting odds heavily favor Topuria, but counting out Gaethje has never been a smart move.
Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje odds:
Illia Topuria -490 | Justin Gaethje +381
Topuria keeps passing every test!
Topuria is 17-0 and has looked unstoppable since becoming champion. The former featherweight king knocked out Alexander Volkanovski to claim UFC gold. He followed that up by becoming the first fighter to stop Max Holloway with strikes. Then he moved to lightweight and knocked out Charles Oliveira in the first round.
What makes Topuria so dangerous is that he is far more than a boxer.
The knockout power grabs the headlines, but his wrestling and grappling are elite as well. Opponents cannot simply worry about the hands because Topuria is capable of winning exchanges on the mat.
The biggest difference between Topuria and many power punchers is his patience. He does not chase finishes recklessly. He cuts the cage, makes reads, and forces mistakes.
Once he finds the opening, he rarely misses.
Gaethje still has the tools to make this interesting!
At 37 years old, Gaethje is getting one more shot at undisputed UFC gold. The former interim champion earned his place with wins over Paddy Pimblett, Rafael Fiziev, Max Holloway and Dustin Poirier. He remains one of the most dangerous strikers in the division.
His leg kicks could be the biggest factor in this fight. Topuria carries a lot of weight on his lead leg. If Gaethje can damage that leg early, he could slow down the champion’s pressure and movement.
The problem is everything that comes after. Gaethje has always relied on toughness. He is willing to take shots to land his own. That approach has worked against most opponents.
Topuria is not most opponents. The champion is faster, cleaner and far more accurate than the majority of fighters Gaethje has faced.
What is Geathje can survive Ilia’s boxing?
To me, there is one question that makes this fight interesting. And it seems to be a question no other analyst has asked. What happens if Gaethje takes Topuria’s best shots and stays standing?
That is not an impossible scenario. Gaethje has built a career on surviving damage that would finish most fighters. Outside of the last-second knockout against Max Holloway, very few opponents have been able to put him away with strikes. In his last fight vs Pimblett, he got hit with several huge shots from who is probably the biggest fighter at lightweight.
If he absorbs the early pressure and forces Topuria into a longer fight, the dynamic changes. Gaethje’s pace, experience and relentless leg kicks could start to become factors. We have never truly seen Topuria dragged into deep waters against someone who keeps coming forward after eating his best punches.
Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje prediction
There is a reason the line continues to favor Topuria. Gaethje has power. He has experience. He has championship rounds under his belt. He also has the type of leg kicks that can change a fight.
But Topuria has shown almost no weaknesses against elite competition. Volkanovski had moments. Holloway landed shots. Oliveira came out aggressively. All three ended up finished.
Gaethje will likely have success early. A few leg kicks will land. The crowd will react every time he throws a big right hand.
Eventually, though, Topuria will begin finding his range. Once he gets into boxing distance, the speed and precision advantage become impossible to ignore.
If we are going straight picks, I will choose Ilia by TKO, round 2 or 3. However, this might be an ideal fight for live UFC betting. If you see Justin doing well in the early rounds, consider a bet on the underdog. After all, this can be a perfect hedge and Gaethje often gets stronger as the fight progresses.
Pick: Ilia Topuria
Method: KO/TKO Round 2
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best Bet: Topuria inside the distance