Former RIZIN rivals Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi finally meet again in the main event of UFC Vegas 119, nearly nine years after their first encounter.
Back in 2017, Horiguchi submitted Kape in the 3rd round of the RIZIN Bantamweight Grand Prix semifinals before going on to win the tournament.
Now both men sit near the top of the UFC rankings, with a potential title shot against Alexandre Pantoja waiting for the winner.
Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi odds
Kape enters as a -165 favorite (1.61), while Horiguchi returns at +130 (2.30).
Kape has become one of the division’s most dangerous finishers
There is no denying how much Kape has improved since that first fight. The Portuguese contender has developed from a wild and unpredictable striker into one of the sharpest counter-punchers in the sport.
His recent run includes stoppage victories over Brandon Royval, Asu Almabayev and Bruno Silva, with the Royval knockout serving as a reminder of just how much power he carries for a 125-pound fighter.
At flyweight, one-shot knockout power is rare, and Kape has it. His ability to switch stances, explode into range and generate fight-changing moments makes him one of the most dangerous men in the division. Even if he is losing rounds, he only needs a split second to alter the course of a fight.
That power advantage is what makes this matchup so intriguing. Horiguchi may be ahead on the scorecards for long stretches, but Kape remains a threat until the final horn. That is probably why most UFC betting sites have him as the favorite.
Horiguchi remains one of the most complete fighters at flyweight
While Kape may hold the power edge, Horiguchi checks more boxes overall. The former Bellator and RIZIN champion has looked outstanding since returning to the UFC.
Wins over Tagir Ulanbekov and Amir Albazi showed that he can still compete with the very best fighters in the world despite spending years away from the promotion.
His karate-based style remains incredibly difficult to prepare for. Horiguchi constantly darts in and out of range, changes rhythms, and forces opponents to chase him into uncomfortable exchanges. And, just like Kape, he also possesses knockout power.
What separates him from many elite strikers is his ability to seamlessly transition into grappling. He can wrestle when needed, control positions, and threaten submissions. That versatility played a major role in the first fight against Kape, where he eventually secured an arm-triangle choke in the third round.
The biggest difference heading into this rematch is that Horiguchi does not need to win every striking exchange. He has multiple paths to victory.
Can Kape solve the puzzle this time?
Kape’s best route to victory is clear. Attack the legs, force Horiguchi to become more stationary, and look for opportunities to land his trademark counters as the Japanese star darts into range.
The five-inch reach advantage could also prove important. Kape’s stance-switching ability allows him to attack from different angles and target Horiguchi’s lead leg regardless of stance.
The problem is that Horiguchi has spent his entire career frustrating elite strikers. His footwork is among the best in the division. He manages distance exceptionally well and constantly gives opponents different looks. One moment he is fighting off the back foot. The next he is applying pressure and forcing exchanges.
Kape has certainly evolved since 2017, but Horiguchi has continued evolving as well.
Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi prediction
Kape’s power makes him a live threat for all 25 minutes, and it would not be surprising to see him score a knockout if he catches Horiguchi during one of his entries. Still, when comparing the complete skill sets, Horiguchi has more answers.
His movement remains one of the toughest puzzles at flyweight. He is the more well-rounded fighter, owns the grappling advantage, and has already shown he can beat Kape once before.
I expect Kape to have moments throughout the fight, but Horiguchi’s ability to mix striking, takedowns, and control should allow him to steadily bank rounds.
I see him taking a decision, or even scoring a finish (TKO or SUB) in the 4th or 5th rounds.
Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi prediction: Kyoji Horiguchi def. Manel Kape via Unanimous Decision
Best Bet: Horiguchi Moneyline
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐
*Disclaimer: No picks are guaranteed. For entertainment purposes only.