One of the more intriguing fights on UFC Vegas 119 sees established UFC striker Melsik Baghdasaryan welcome highly touted prospect Murtazali Magomedov to the Octagon.
For Baghdasaryan, this is an opportunity to remind fans that he remains one of the sharper kickboxers in the featherweight division despite an injury-plagued and inactive UFC run. A victory over a heavily hyped prospect would immediately put him back on the radar at 145 pounds.
For Magomedov, this is all about making a statement. The undefeated Kirghizstani enters the UFC carrying significant expectations after an impressive Contender Series performance and a perfect 10-0 professional record.
Defeating a dangerous striker like Baghdasaryan in his debut would instantly validate much of that hype.
Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov odds
The betting market expects the newcomer to get the job done. Magomedov enters as a -315 favorite (1.32), while Baghdasaryan comes back at +255 (3.55).
Can Baghdasaryan keep the fight standing?
The fight probably boils down to how good the Armenian’s takedown defense is. If this fight turns into a pure kickboxing match, Baghdasaryan has a very real chance of pulling off the upset.
The Glendale Fighting Club product remains one of the better strikers in the division. He is fast, explosive, and dangerous from both kicking and punching range. His left kick remains one of his best weapons, and he does an excellent job attacking the body and legs while putting combinations together.
When Baghdasaryan is allowed to work at his preferred range, he can be difficult to deal with. His victory over Tucker Lutz showcased his ability to control a striking battle over three rounds, while his earlier win over Bruno Souza highlighted the technical kickboxing skills that earned him a UFC contract in the first place.
The concern is what happens when opponents force him into grappling exchanges. Throughout his UFC career, Baghdasaryan has struggled when opponents successfully mix wrestling into the equation. Joshua Culibao exploited those weaknesses with a rear-naked choke victory, and there are still questions about how much his defensive grappling has improved since then.
Against Magomedov, that will likely become the defining factor.
Magomedov brings more than just Dagestani wrestling
Whenever an undefeated prospect from Central Asia enters the UFC, we assume we are dealing with a Dagestani-style wrestler. The difference with Magomedov is that he does not rely exclusively on wrestling.
The 26-year-old made a strong impression on Dana White’s Contender Series by showcasing crisp boxing, a sharp jab, and legitimate finishing instincts. His first-round knockout of Brahyan Zurcher demonstrated both his power and his ability to remain composed under pressure.
Perhaps most importantly, Magomedov appears to be able to finish wherever the fight takes place. He owns five knockout victories and five submission victories, giving him a balanced skill set that makes him difficult to prepare for. While the level of competition on the regional circuit leaves some unanswered questions, his finishing ability is impossible to ignore.
This matchup also gives him multiple paths to victory. He can strike with Baghdasaryan long enough to create openings. He can use level changes to disrupt the Armenian’s rhythm. And if he successfully gets the fight to the mat, he should have a clear advantage in the grappling exchanges.
That versatility is a major reason why he enters as such a significant favorite at UFC bookmakers.
Melsik Baghdasaryan vs Murtazali Magomedov prediction
Baghdasaryan is dangerous enough on the feet to make this interesting.
If Magomedov chooses to stand and trade for extended periods, he will be giving one of the division’s most accomplished kickboxers opportunities to land. That is not a strategy I expect him to pursue for three rounds.
Instead, I expect Magomedov to use a balanced approach. The striking should help set up the wrestling. The wrestling should create openings for the striking. Over time, those level changes and grappling threats should begin to wear on Baghdasaryan and force him into uncomfortable positions.
Unless Baghdasaryan has made significant improvements in the grappling department during his time away, Magomedov appears to have a clear path to victory.
Melsik Baghdasaryan vs Murtazali Magomedov prediction: Murtazali Magomedov via second-round submission
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best bet: Murtazali Magomedov by Submission
*Disclaimer: All predictions, picks, and betting opinions expressed in this article are for entertainment purposes only. Sports betting involves risk, and there are no guaranteed outcomes. Always gamble responsibly and never wager more than you can afford to lose.