Liu Ce makes his UFC debut against Levi Rodrigues Jr. in a light heavyweight matchup that looks built for violence. Here are my full predictions for Liu Ce vs Levi Rodrigues Jr.
Is the UFC looking for its next Chinese star?
The UFC is always looking for new Chinese talent. And in Liu Ce, the promotion has signed a decorated striker with an exciting, knockout-friendly style. A strong performance could immediately establish him as a new Chinese name to watch at 205 pounds. That in itself could be a hint at how the UFC expects this fight to go.
Liu is only 3-1 in professional MMA, but that record does not tell the full story. He is an accomplished kickboxer and former K-1 Cruiserweight champion with an 18-3 kickboxing record. Rodrigues has considerably less high-level striking experience but brings raw power and already has one UFC fight behind him. The big question is whether Liu’s elite striking background can compensate for his lack of MMA experience.
The stakes are very different for Rodrigues. The Brazilian was stopped by Felipe Franco in his UFC debut, meaning a second consecutive defeat could put his place on the roster under serious pressure. An upset win would completely change that trajectory while spoiling Liu’s anticipated arrival.
Liu Ce vs Levi Rodrigues Jr. odds
Liu Ce is currently a -190 favorite, which gives him an implied win probability of around 65.5%. Rodrigues comes back at +160, carrying an implied probability of approximately 38.5%.
Liu reportedly opened around -175 before attracting money toward the favorite. That UFC odds movement makes sense considering his kickboxing pedigree, home-region advantage and the stylistic matchup.
The prop market is even more aggressive. Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance is priced around -850, while Under 1.5 Rounds sits at -210. Liu by KO/TKO is available at -135, Liu to win in Round 1 at +155, and Rodrigues by KO/TKO at +240.
Those numbers leave little doubt about what UFC betting apps expect: a short, violent fight.
Where to bet on Liu Ce vs Levi Rodrigues Jr.
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Liu Ce: Elite kickboxer entering the UFC
Liu’s 3-1 MMA record would normally make his arrival in the UFC surprising. His combat sports résumé explains why the promotion is interested. The Chinese light heavyweight has competed at a much higher level in kickboxing, building an 18-3 record and becoming a K-1 Cruiserweight champion. His kicking game is particularly dangerous.
Liu does not simply throw low kicks to score points. He attacks the legs with genuine finishing intent. Once opponents begin reacting to those kicks, his boxing combinations become considerably more dangerous.
His latest MMA appearance came against Igor Barabanov in May 2026. Liu finished the fight with leg kicks and punches at 4:56 of the opening round. There is still a major question surrounding his transition to MMA. Liu’s grappling remains largely unproven. He suffered a second-round TKO loss against Ivan Gnizditskiy in 2024, and previous footage has shown a fighter who is far more comfortable striking than dealing with wrestling exchanges.
His latest performance showed some improvement in that area, but the level of opposition makes it difficult to determine how much progress he has actually made.
Liu Ce keys to victory
- Attack Rodrigues’ lead leg immediately
- Maintain kickboxing range instead of exchanging recklessly
- Punish Rodrigues when he crashes forward
- Defend the first takedown attempts and force the Brazilian back into striking exchanges
Levi Rodrigues Jr. needs to make this ugly
Rodrigues enters at 5-1 with one no contest, but he is already under some pressure after losing his UFC debut. Felipe Franco stopped him with punches in the second round in July 2026. That defeat came after Rodrigues’ appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series against Freddy Vidal was overturned to a no contest.
Before reaching the UFC, Rodrigues built his reputation primarily through finishes. He knocked out Alan Ribeiro in the opening round and stopped both Jhonny Pereira and Jose Carlos Lima. Power is his biggest weapon here.
Rodrigues is not the cleaner or more accomplished striker, but he can crack. That makes him dangerous if Liu becomes too comfortable and allows the fight to turn into a pocket exchange. The Brazilian should also recognize the obvious hole in Liu’s game.
Even if Rodrigues is not a particularly accomplished wrestler himself, testing Liu’s takedown defense makes sense. Standing at kickboxing range for extended periods gives Liu exactly the fight he wants.
Levi Rodrigues Jr. keys to victory
- Pressure Liu rather than fighting at kicking range
- Mix takedown attempts into his forward pressure
- Force dirty boxing exchanges against the fence
- Look for the right hand when Liu commits to his kicks
Where does Rodrigues have an advantage?
This is a strange matchup because neither fighter is particularly proven as a complete MMA fighter. Liu is clearly the more technically accomplished striker. His kickboxing experience is several levels above what Rodrigues has encountered during most of his MMA career. But this is not a kickboxing match.
Rodrigues has a legitimate path if he immediately turns the fight into MMA. He does not necessarily need to dominate Liu on the ground. Takedown attempts, clinch pressure and messy exchanges could be enough to prevent Liu from settling into his preferred rhythm. The problem is whether Rodrigues can consistently get there.
Closing distance against a fighter with Liu’s low kicks is dangerous. Every failed entry gives Liu another opportunity to damage the lead leg, and Rodrigues’ movement could deteriorate quickly if Liu lands cleanly early.
Liu Ce vs Levi Rodrigues Jr. prediction
There are reasons to be cautious about laying significant money on a fighter with only four professional MMA appearances. Liu’s defensive grappling is the biggest concern. A stronger wrestler could potentially expose him badly, and his limited cage experience leaves questions that simply cannot be answered through his kickboxing résumé.
I am not convinced Rodrigues is the fighter to exploit them. Rodrigues should attempt takedowns, but attempting them and consistently controlling Liu are two different things. If he cannot establish that threat early, he will be forced to spend too much time striking with a much more accomplished kickboxer.
That is where the fight should turn. Liu’s low kicks can disrupt Rodrigues’ forward pressure before opening opportunities for his hands. Rodrigues remains dangerous because of his power, particularly if Liu gets dragged into a pocket brawl, but technically this is Liu’s fight to lose on the feet.
I expect Rodrigues to have some early success with his aggression before Liu begins finding the legs and timing his entries. Once Rodrigues’ movement slows, Liu should take over.
Official Liu Ce vs Levi Rodrigues Jr. prediction: Liu Ce by TKO, round 2
Best betting angle
Liu Ce by KO/TKO at -135 is my preferred betting angle. Paying -190 on Liu’s moneyline offers limited value when his most realistic route to victory is already available at a much better price.
The -850 price on Fight Doesn’t Go the Distance is impossible to recommend as a straight bet. Under 1.5 Rounds at -210 is more playable, but it still requires laying a significant price in a fight involving two relatively inexperienced MMA fighters.
Liu Round 1 at +155 is the more aggressive alternative. Rodrigues by KO/TKO at +240 is also the logical prop for anyone backing the underdog. If Rodrigues pulls off the upset, raw power is far more likely to be responsible than a three-round technical performance.
Prediction: Liu Ce by KO/TKO, Round 1.
| Pick | Method | Confidence | Best Bet |
| Liu Ce | KO/TKO, Round 2 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ | Liu Ce by KO/TKO (-135) |