The MMA world heads to Netflix on May 16 for one of the strangest and most fascinating fight cards of the year. MVP’s Los Angeles event combines former UFC champions, crossover stars, heavyweight knockout artists, and fan favorites into a lineup built for mainstream attention.
The spotlight falls on Ronda Rousey and Gina Carano, two of the biggest names in women’s MMA history finally sharing the cage in a long-discussed matchup. The card also features two all-star veterans in Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry and the return of Francis Ngannou against Philippe Lins.
With Netflix continuing its push into live combat sports, the event carries major attention heading into fight night, including from MMA betting fans. Here are our predictions for the biggest matchups on the card.
Quick overview
Odds and predictions
Rousey -530 (1.19) | Carano +360 (4.60)
Prediction: Rousey via Round 1 Submission
Ngannou -2000 (1.05) | Lins +830 (9.30)
Prediction: Ngannou via Round 1 KO
Diaz +176 (2.76) | Perry -230 (1.43)
Prediction: Perry via Round 3 TKO
Dos Santos +390 (4.90) | Despaigne -590 (1.17)
Prediction: Despaigne via Round 2 KO
Parnasse -850 (1.12) | Cross +500 (6.00)
Prediction: Parnasse via Round 2 TKO
Best bets
- Francis Ngannou via Round 1 KO: Ngannou’s power advantage over Philippe Lins is enormous. Lins has been stopped before, and this matchup strongly favors an early finish.
- Mike Perry Moneyline: Perry has stayed far more active than Nate Diaz and looked sharper in recent combat sports appearances. Activity and conditioning could become major factors.
- Ronda Rousey Inside the Distance: Gina Carano has not fought since 2009. Rousey’s grappling and finishing instincts make an early stoppage highly likely.
- Robelis Despaigne via KO/TKO: At 42 years old, Junior dos Santos faces a dangerous and explosive heavyweight who starts fast, hits hard and hunts for finishes immediately.
Best Parlay: All of these!
Where and When to Watch MVP MMA on Netflix
The MVP MMA event headlined by Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano streams live globally on Netflix on Saturday, May 16. Prelims also available on Netflix Tudm and MVP’s YouTube channel
USA
- Date: Saturday, May 16
- Main Card: 9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT
- Prelims: 6 p.m. ET / 3 p.m. PT
UK
- Date: Sunday, May 17
- Main Card: 2 a.m. BST
- Prelims: 11 p.m. BST (Saturday night)
Australia
- Date: Sunday, May 17
- Main Card: 11 a.m. AEST
- Prelims: 8 a.m. AEST
Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano Prediction
Odds: Ronda Rousey -530 (1.19) vs. Gina Carano +360 (4.60)
This fight is at least 15 years overdue. Two of the most recognizable names in women’s MMA history are finally meeting after years of speculation and fantasy matchmaking.
Carano has not competed in professional MMA since 2009, when she lost to Cris Cyborg in Strikeforce. Now 44 years old, she returns for the biggest spotlight fight of her career against one of the sport’s most dominant former champions.
Rousey enters at 39 and remains the more accomplished fighter by a wide margin. The former UFC bantamweight queen defeated elite competition throughout her title run and built a reputation as one of the quickest finishers the sport has ever seen.
Rousey’s physical shape has become a major talking point
One of the biggest storylines leading into the fight has been Rousey’s appearance during promotional events and training footage.
Fans immediately noticed how lean and muscular she looked ahead of her MMA comeback, sparking steroid rumors online. There is no evidence supporting those claims, but the discussion spread quickly across social media after recent appearances.
Unlike Carano, Rousey also never fully stepped away from athletic competition after leaving MMA. Her WWE career required constant training, travel, conditioning, and physical preparation over the years. Even without active MMA fights, she has remained far closer to a professional athlete’s lifestyle than most retired fighters.
That could matter significantly in a five-round fight, especially considering Carano’s extended absence from combat sports competition.
Can Carano make this competitive?
Carano still brings real intrigue into the matchup. She was one of the original crossover stars in women’s MMA and remains physically imposing at 145 pounds. Her striking style could create dangerous moments if the fight stays standing early.
But the inactivity is difficult to overlook. Carano has not fought in nearly two decades, while Rousey has experience on the biggest stages in combat sports and entertainment. The speed, pressure, and grappling exchanges could become overwhelming quickly if Rousey starts aggressively.
Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano Prediction
Carano’s size and striking may help her survive a few early exchanges, but Rousey’s grappling pedigree and experience against elite opposition give her a major edge. If she closes distance early, the fight could end fast.
Francis Ngannou Vs Felipe Lins Prediction
Odds: Francis Ngannou -2000 (1.05) vs. Philippe Lins +830 (9.30)
On paper, this is the toughest possible comeback fight for Lins. The former UFC fighter has experience at both heavyweight and light heavyweight, but standing across from Ngannou is a completely different challenge. Lins owns a respectable 18-5 record and picked up some solid wins during his career, but he also suffered several damaging knockout losses that fans have not forgotten.
That is part of the reason many observers see this as an extremely risky matchup. Ngannou remains one of the most feared punchers in MMA history. Even after time away from the UFC, his raw power still changes the entire dynamic of a fight the moment the cage door closes.
Why Ngannou Is Such a Massive Favorite
Few heavyweights in combat sports history have carried Ngannou’s combination of explosiveness and finishing ability.
“The Predator” built his reputation through terrifying knockouts and overwhelming physicality. When he lands clean, fights usually end immediately.
Lins has technical experience and toughness, but the concern is whether he can handle the speed and power difference early. Several analysts have already called this a potential mismatch given Ngannou’s size and knockout threat.
There is also the question of durability. Lins has been stopped before, including a knockout loss to Tanner Boser during his UFC run. Against someone with Ngannou’s power, that history becomes impossible to ignore.
Francis Ngannou Vs Felipe Lins Prediction: Francis Ngannou via KO, Round 1
Everything about this matchup points toward an early finish. Lins deserves credit for accepting the fight, but surviving Ngannou’s opening pressure feels like an enormous task. If Ngannou lands clean in the first few minutes, this one could end violently and very quickly.
Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry Prediction
Odds: Nate Diaz +176 (2.76) vs. Mike Perry -230 (1.43)
This matchup may come down to one simple question: which version of Nate Diaz is actually showing up?
Unlike Diaz Mike Perry Has Stayed Active in Combat Sports
While Diaz has spent the last several years bouncing between boxing matches and long stretches away from competition, Perry has stayed consistently active in combat sports. Even after his UFC run ended with a loss to Daniel Rodriguez in 2021, Perry rebuilt his reputation in bare knuckle boxing and became the biggest star in BKFC history.
Perry defeated a long list of recognizable MMA veterans during that stretch. He beat Julian Lane in a Fight of the Night performance, edged Michael Page in a wild six-round war, stopped Luke Rockhold after forcing him to quit on the stool, and overwhelmed Eddie Alvarez to capture the symbolic “King of Violence” title.
He later knocked out Thiago Alves in the first round and defended his BKFC crown against Jeremy Stephens in a brutal fight featuring six knockdowns.
Even in defeat, Perry earned respect for his performance against Jake Paul in boxing. He stayed aggressive, remained competitive early, and looked far more invested in the fight than Diaz did during his own boxing appearance against Paul.
Serious Questions Surround Nate Diaz Shape and Motivation
Diaz’s last MMA fight came against Tony Ferguson back in 2022. By the time this fight happens, that will be nearly four full years without an MMA appearance.
Since then, fans have only seen Diaz in boxing matches. First came the lackluster performance against Jake Paul in 2023. Then came a sloppy and awkward fight against Jorge Masvidal in 2024. In both appearances, Diaz looked disengaged physically and mentally.
That has created major concerns about his conditioning, motivation, and overall sharpness heading into a dangerous matchup with Perry. Diaz still has legendary cardio, toughness, and submission ability in the eyes of many fans, but inactivity matters. So does lifestyle. Diaz is famous for his consumption of the devil’s lettuce, and we don’t know
There is also no guarantee that the version of Diaz who shocked Conor McGregor years ago still exists in 2026.
At the same time, Diaz has always been unpredictable. A motivated Nate chasing one final massive payday could still make things interesting. A victory here could even reopen talk of a McGregor trilogy if both sides remain interested in another blockbuster event.
The Weigh-Ins Could Tell the Real Story
A lot may become clear in the weigh-ins. If Diaz shows up lean, focused, and fully locked in mentally, the prediction changes dramatically. His grappling and durability could become a serious problem for Perry in later rounds, especially if the fight turns chaotic.
But based on recent performances, Perry simply looks like the sharper and more committed fighter right now.
Prediction: Mike Perry via TKO, Round 3
Perry’s activity level, aggression, and recent combat sports success make him the safer pick entering this fight. Diaz is still dangerous because of his experience and submission game, but unless he suddenly looks rejuvenated during fight week, it is difficult to bet on a fighter who has spent years away from combat sports.
Junior dos Santos vs. Robelis Despaigne Prediction
Odds: Junior dos Santos +390 (4.90) vs. Robelis Despaigne -590 (1.17)
There is no questioning the résumé of Junior dos Santos. The former UFC heavyweight champion remains one of the most accomplished boxers the division has ever seen. During his prime, dos Santos defeated elite heavyweights and earned victories over names like Cain Velasquez, Stipe Miocic, and Frank Mir.
But this matchup is more about timing than legacy. Dos Santos enters the fight at 42 years old, and heavyweight is a brutal division for aging fighters. Durability, reaction speed, and movement tend to disappear quickly once decline begins, especially against explosive punchers. That is what makes Robelis Despaigne such a dangerous opponent here.
Despaigne’s Explosiveness Creates Problems Early
Despaigne has quickly developed a reputation as one of the scariest early-finish heavyweights in combat sports. His size, explosiveness, and raw athleticism create immediate problems for almost anyone standing across from him.
The Cuban heavyweight does not waste much time once the fight starts. He pressures aggressively and looks for openings immediately, which could become a nightmare scenario for an older version of dos Santos.
Even though JDS still possesses dangerous boxing fundamentals and veteran composure, surviving the opening exchanges may be his biggest challenge.
Prediction: Robelis Despaigne via KO, Round 2
Dos Santos still has the experience advantage by a mile, but Despaigne’s speed and power look overwhelming at this stage of JDS’s career. If Despaigne lands clean early, the fight may end very quickly.
Salahdine Parnasse vs. Kenneth Cross Prediction
Odds: Salahdine Parnasse -850 (1.12) vs. Kenneth Cross +500 (6.00)
Salahdine Parnasse may not be a household name to American MMA fans yet, but his résumé in Europe is impressive.
Most of his career took place under the KSW banner, where he became one of the promotion’s top stars and one of the few fighters in company history to capture titles in two divisions. Parnasse held championships at both featherweight and lightweight while building a reputation as one of the most technical strikers outside the UFC.
His overall record also reflects a well-rounded skill set. Parnasse owns victories by knockout, submission, and decision, showing an ability to adapt depending on the opponent in front of him.
More importantly, he competed consistently against experienced international talent rather than regional-level opposition.
Kenneth Cross Could Make This Ugly With Wrestling
Cross enters the fight with less mainstream recognition, but he should not be overlooked entirely. Most of his career took place on the American regional scene, though he did pick up a notable win on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2020 when he defeated Kevin Syler by decision.
His only appearance under a major promotion banner after that came in Bellator, where he suffered a submission loss to Killys Mota in 2023.
Still, Cross enters this matchup on a four-fight winning streak, and his wrestling could create problems for Parnasse if he manages to slow the pace and force clinch exchanges. That may be his clearest path to victory.
Prediction: Salahdine Parnasse via 2nd round TKO
Parnasse appears to be the cleaner and more complete mixed martial artist overall. Cross may have success with takedown attempts and pressure. But Parnasse’s striking, composure, and experience in high-level championship fights should help get the finish.