UFC Vegas 117 might not have the biggest names on paper, but this card is loaded with competitive matchups, dangerous prospects, and several fights that could completely reshape divisions moving forward. The UFC Apex once again hosts a veteran-versus-rising-contender main event, as Arnold Allen looks to defend his spot near the top of the featherweight rankings against the surging Melquizael Costa.
Costa enters the biggest fight of his career riding serious momentum after becoming the first fighter to stop Dan Ige with a brutal spinning back kick. Allen, meanwhile, remains one of the most technical and battle-tested featherweights in the division, with experience against names like Max Holloway, Movsar Evloev, and Giga Chikadze.
The co-main event also delivers guaranteed violence. Dooho Choi returns for another featured fight against the aggressive Daniel Santos in a matchup between two dangerous strikers with very different styles.
Elsewhere on the card, several underrated fights stand out. Malcolm Wellmaker faces dangerous newcomer Juan Diaz in a high-risk bantamweight clash, while prospects like Tommy Gantt and Timmy Cuamba look to continue building momentum.
From technical striking battles to chaotic dog fights, UFC Vegas 117 has the potential to quietly become one of the most entertaining Fight Night cards of the year. Here is our full UFC betting guide to the event.
Overview: Quick picks and best bets
Arnold Allen -170 (1.59) | Melquizael Costa +140 (2.40)
Prediction: Costa via Round 4 TKO
Dooho Choi +140 (2.40) | Daniel Santos -170 (1.59)
Prediction: Santos via Decision
Malcolm Wellmaker -260 (1.38) | Juan Diaz +210 (3.10)
Prediction: Wellmaker via Unanimous Decision
Modestas Bukauskas -115 (1.87) | Rodolfo Bellato -105 (1.95)
Prediction: Bellato via Round 3 TKO
Timmy Cuamba +135 (2.35) | Bernardo Sopaj -175 (1.57)
Prediction: Cuamba via Decision
Best bets
- Melquizael Costa Inside the Distance: Costa is one of the best value underdogs on the card. His kicking game, explosiveness, and finishing instincts give him multiple ways to create problems for Allen early and potentially score a stoppage.
- Timmy Cuamba Moneyline: Cuamba’s cardio, movement, and takedown defense could become major factors after the first round. If Sopaj slows down, Cuamba has the tools to take over late.
- Rodolfo Bellato via KO/TKO: Bellato thrives once fights become ugly and exhausting. Bukauskas should have success early, but Bellato’s pressure, durability, and calf kicks make a late stoppage very realistic.
- Juan Diaz Moneyline: Diaz is probably undervalued by bookmakers here. His composure, technical striking, and ability to fight at multiple ranges make him a very dangerous live underdog against a power puncher like Wellmaker.
Where and when to watch UFC Vegas 117: Allen vs. Costa
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa takes place on Saturday, May 16, 2026, at the Meta Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada. Here is where and when to watch:
USA
- Prelims: 5 PM ET / 2 PM PT
- Main card: 8 PM ET / 5 PM PT
- Watch on: Paramount+ and HBO Max
United Kingdom
- Prelims: 10 PM BST
- Main card: 1 AM BST (Sunday morning)
- Watch on: UFC Fight Pass, TNT Sports, and discovery+
Australia
- Prelims: 7 AM AEST (Sunday)
- Main card: 10 AM AEST (Sunday)
- Watch on: Paramount+
Timmy Cuamba vs. Bernardo Sopaj prediction
Odds
- Timmy Cuamba: +135 (2.35) | Implied win probability: 42.6%
- Bernardo Sopaj: -175 (1.57) | Implied win probability: 63.7%
This is one of the more underrated fights on the card. Both guys are aggressive, both are well-rounded, and neither fighter really wants to spend 15 minutes backing up.
UFC oddsmakers currently favor Bernardo Sopaj, but there are several reasons why Timmy Cuamba could be an interesting underdog pick.
Why Cuamba can pull off the upset
Cuamba continues to look more comfortable at bantamweight. The size, reach, and pace all seem to fit him better at 135 pounds, and his striking has become increasingly polished.
His straight punches are especially sharp. Cuamba does a good job fighting behind the jab, staying long, and mixing combinations together without overcommitting. Against ChangHo Lee, he also showed impressive composure while defending takedowns and scrambling back to his feet against a strong grappler.
That defensive grappling could become a major factor here. Cuamba also appears to have the better cardio of the two. If Sopaj pushes a hard pace early and cannot secure a finish, the momentum may gradually shift as the fight moves into the later rounds.
The danger Sopaj brings
There is no denying how dangerous Bernardo Sopaj can be offensively. He throws with serious intent, attacks the body well, switches stances, and has enough grappling ability to mix things up when needed.
Sopaj is probably the more explosive athlete overall, and early in the fight he may land the more damaging shots. His pressure and power could create difficult moments for Cuamba before the American settles into his rhythm.
The concern is sustainability. Sopaj sometimes burns a lot of energy early while hunting big moments, and his gas tank has looked questionable in longer fights.
What likely decides the fight
The opening round could determine everything. If Sopaj hurts Cuamba early or consistently wins the grappling exchanges, he may build enough momentum to control the fight from start to finish. But if Cuamba survives the early pressure, starts extending combinations, and forces Sopaj to work at a high pace, the matchup becomes much more competitive.
Cuamba’s movement, jab, and takedown defense should allow him to slowly take over minutes as the fight progresses.
Prediction: Timmy Cuamba def. Bernardo Sopaj by decision
Sopaj starts aggressively and probably has the better moments early, but Cuamba’s cardio, straight punching, and defensive grappling help him rally back over the final two rounds.
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Rodolfo Bellato predictions
Odds
- Modestas Bukauskas: -115 (1.87) | Implied win probability: 53.5%
- Rodolfo Bellato: -105 (1.95) | Implied win probability: 51.3%
This light heavyweight matchup is one of the closest on paper, and it probably comes down to one question: can Modestas Bukauskas maintain his pace and discipline for all three rounds? Because early on, Bukauskas should have success.
Bukauskas likely starts faster
Technically, Bukauskas is the cleaner striker. His footwork is sharper, his straight punches are cleaner, and he does a good job exploding in and out of range with that darting one-two combination.
When he gets comfortable, he can rack up points quickly while staying relatively safe on the outside. The issue is that his style can become repetitive. Opponents eventually start timing the entries, and once Bukauskas slows down even slightly, the openings begin to appear. That is dangerous against somebody like Rodolfo Bellato.
Bellato thrives in chaos
Bellato is one of those fighters who almost gets stronger the uglier a fight becomes. He absorbs damage, keeps marching forward, attacks the legs, and slowly drags opponents into exhausting exchanges.
We have already seen that pattern multiple times in the UFC. He gets hurt early, survives difficult moments, and eventually starts taking over once opponents begin fading.
His durability stands out immediately. Even in fights where things look bad early, Bellato never seems to mentally check out. That constant pressure can become overwhelming for opponents who rely heavily on movement and rhythm.
The calf kicks could also become a major factor here. Bukauskas depends on his movement to create offense, and Bellato attacks the legs well enough to gradually slow fighters down.
Why this matchup so close
There is a realistic path for Bukauskas to win minutes early. He probably lands the cleaner shots in the first round and may even hurt Bellato at some point.
But Bellato does not fight like somebody looking for a clean technical battle. He wants pressure, ugly exchanges, clinch work, and momentum swings. Once the pace becomes uncomfortable, he tends to thrive.
Bukauskas can absolutely win a decision if he stays disciplined and avoids prolonged exchanges. The problem is that Bellato constantly forces opponents to work.
Prediction: Rodolfo Bellato def. Modestas Bukauskas via third-round TKO
Bukauskas starts well and has success with the cleaner striking early, but Bellato’s pressure, durability, and leg kicks gradually change the momentum of the fight. By the final round, I expect Bellato to be walking Bukauskas down and landing the heavier shots.
Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz predictions
Odds
- Malcolm Wellmaker: -260 (1.38) | Implied win probability: 72.2%
- Juan Diaz: +210 (3.10) | Implied win probability: 32.3%
This matchup has all the ingredients for a sneaky Fight of the Night contender. The smaller cage at the UFC Apex only adds to the chaos because neither guy is likely to spend much time backing up.
A lot of fans suddenly jumped off the Malcolm Wellmaker hype train after the loss to Ethan Ewing, but that defeat may end up helping his long-term development more than another quick knockout win would have.
The danger Wellmaker brings
There are very few bantamweights with the kind of one-shot power Wellmaker possesses. When he lands clean, opponents tend to disappear immediately. The knockouts over Cameron Saaiman and Chris Moutinho showed just how explosive his hands can be.
The concern is that he became too dependent on those big hooks. Against Ewing, he spent too much time waiting for the perfect knockout shot instead of building offense behind the jab and combinations.
This is the type of fight where we could see a more disciplined version of Wellmaker. Expect him to work behind the jab more often, switch stances, and set traps instead of endlessly hunting one massive counter shot.
Why Juan Diaz is dangerous
Juan Diaz is not showing up just to survive his UFC debut. The Peruvian prospect looks like a legitimate talent with a very complete skill set.
His striking is fluid, he mixes kicks well, and he seems comfortable fighting at multiple ranges. Diaz can also work in the clinch, mix in grappling, and keep a high pace throughout the fight.
One thing that stands out immediately is his composure. Diaz does not appear reckless on the feet, which matters a lot against somebody with nuclear-level power like Wellmaker. If he avoids getting drawn into sloppy exchanges early, he absolutely has the tools to make this competitive.
What probably decides the fight
The biggest question is whether Wellmaker makes the proper adjustments after his first UFC loss. If he fights patiently and mixes his offense together instead of headhunting, his power and overall striking should eventually create damaging moments. Diaz will likely have success with volume and activity, especially late, but Wellmaker’s shots simply carry more impact.
Prediction: Malcolm Wellmaker def. Juan Diaz via unanimous decision
Wellmaker lands the cleaner and more damaging shots often enough to secure a competitive decision victory. Still, Diaz is a very live underdog here, especially if the fight turns into a technical, high-volume battle over three rounds. And he is probably a bit undervalued by bookmakers, so if you are looking for an underdog pick, Diaz is probably your guy.
Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos predictions
Odds
- Dooho Choi: +140 (2.40) | Implied win probability: 41.7%
- Daniel Santos: -170 (1.59) | Implied win probability: 63.0%
There is something nostalgic about seeing Dooho Choi back in a featured spot again. Fans still remember the legendary war with Cub Swanson, and even now, Choi remains one of the cleanest pure boxers in the featherweight division. At the same time, this matchup feels like a dangerous assignment for the veteran.
Choi’s path to victory
If this fight stays at boxing range for long stretches, Choi could absolutely take over. His straight punches are sharp, his timing is excellent, and he still carries real knockout power. Santos likes to pressure forward aggressively, which may give Choi opportunities to land counters down the middle.
Choi also has the experience advantage by a mile. He has fought elite names, survived firefights, and dealt with dangerous strikers long before Santos ever entered the UFC conversation. That composure matters in close fights.
Another thing working in Choi’s favor is his ability to punish mistakes quickly. Santos tends to throw with aggression and volume. If he gets too reckless entering the pocket, Choi’s right hand could change the fight instantly.
Why Santos is still favored
Daniel Santos is not just walking forward throwing wild strikes. The Brazilian mixes attacks together extremely well. Leg kicks, knees, elbows, clinch pressure, and level changes all flow naturally into his game.
That variety could slowly wear Choi down over three rounds. Santos also fights at a relentless pace. He does not give opponents much time to settle or reset. Against a technical striker like Choi, that pressure can be valuable because it forces reactions instead of allowing clean reads.
The leg kicks stand out as a major weapon here too. Choi’s long stance leaves that lead leg available, and Santos seems likely to attack it early and often.
What could decide the fight
This may come down to who controls the tempo. A measured kickboxing match probably favors Choi. A messy, high-volume fight with clinch exchanges and constant pressure likely favors Santos. The Brazilian simply has more ways to score minute-by-minute during a close decision fight.
Choi will have moments. He is too skilled not to. But Santos appears better equipped to win rounds consistently across 15 minutes.
Prediction: Daniel Santos def. Dooho Choi by decision
Choi lands the cleaner shots throughout the fight and has some dangerous moments with his boxing, but Santos’ pressure, leg kicks, and overall activity help him edge a competitive decision.
Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa predictions
Odds
- Arnold Allen: -170 (1.59) | Implied win probability: 63.0%
- Melquizael Costa: +140 (2.40) | Implied win probability: 41.7%
Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa is one of the most intriguing featherweight fights of the year. Costa has quickly become one of the division’s most dangerous rising contenders, while Allen continues to prove he belongs among the elite at 145 pounds. Can Arnold beat back the surging Brazilian to maintain his place in the rankings?
Arnold Allen’s path to victory
Allen’s biggest advantage is his experience against top-tier competition. He has already gone five rounds with Max Holloway, pushed Movsar Evloev in a highly competitive fight, and shared the cage with dangerous strikers like Giga Chikadze and Jean Silva.
Technically, Allen may also have the cleaner boxing in this matchup. His hand speed, movement, and ability to pressure intelligently could neutralize Costa’s kicking game. Allen is unlikely to stand directly in front of Costa for long periods, which is important against such a creative striker.
Cardio could become another major factor. Allen has proven he can maintain a steady pace over five rounds, while Costa has shown signs of slowing down after fast starts in previous fights.
Why Melquizael Costa can win
Costa is arguably the more dangerous finisher entering this fight. His body kicks, spinning attacks, knees, and high kicks make him a constant threat at range. He also has a slick submission game and can capitalize quickly if Allen makes a mistake during grappling exchanges.
The Brazilian’s unpredictability makes him difficult to prepare for. He mixes attacks well and throws strikes from unusual angles. If Allen becomes too comfortable boxing in close range, Costa could land a fight-changing kick or knee up the middle.
Costa also tends to start fights aggressively. That early pressure could help him bank rounds before Allen settles into his rhythm.
Key factor in the fight
The five-round format feels like the biggest storyline. Costa has looked explosive in shorter fights, but this matchup gives Allen more time to make reads and slowly take control with pressure, combinations, and movement.
Allen’s ability to avoid prolonged kicking exchanges and turn the fight into a boxing-heavy battle may ultimately decide the outcome.
Prediction: Melquizael Costa via TKO unanimous decision
Allen’s experience, composure, and technical boxing may help him gradually take over as the fight progresses. Still, Costa is absolutely a live dog in this matchup because of his finishing ability and unpredictability. I like the plus money on this one, so Melquizael by 4th round TKO it is.