The UFC is back this weekend with a stacked card in Macau, and for fight fans willing to stay awake through the early hours, this one could be worth the lack of sleep. UFC Macau kicks off at 4 a.m. Eastern time, bringing a night full of ranked matchups, dangerous prospects, Chinese talent and several fights that could completely shake up their divisions.

The event takes place in Macau, the only region in China where casino gambling is legal, which seems fitting for a card packed with volatile matchups and live underdogs. From a UFC betting perspective, this is one of the most interesting UFC events in months.

In the main event, China’s own Song Yadong looks to bounce back after a razor-close loss to Sean O’Malley when he faces former UFC flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo. The matchup pits Song’s youth, speed, and momentum against the experience and finishing ability of one of the most dangerous flyweights in recent UFC history.

The co-main event features another Chinese contender in Zhang Mingyang, who faces veteran knockout artist Alonzo Menifield in a high-risk light heavyweight clash. The card also features heavyweight action between Sergei Pavlovich and Tallison Teixeira, a fun flyweight matchup between Alex Perez and Sumudaerji, plus several other intriguing fights throughout the lineup.

In this article, I’ll break down every fight on the UFC Macau card, including predictions, an stylistic matchups.

Song Yadong vs Deiveson Figueiredo prediction

Odds: Song Yadong -600 (1.17) | Deiveson Figueiredo +450 (5.50)

Both fighters enter the main event coming off losses, but the momentum and career trajectory clearly favor Song Yadong heading into Macau.

Why Song Yadong should win

Song is still firmly in his athletic prime at 28 years old, while Figueiredo is now 38 and appears to be slowing down physically. The speed, durability, cardio, and output advantages all lean heavily toward the Chinese contender.

Song has also remained competitive against elite bantamweights. He pushed Sean O’Malley in a close fight, beat Henry Cejudo, and gave Petr Yan difficult moments. Meanwhile, Figueiredo has struggled more consistently since moving up to bantamweight.

Another major factor is pace. Song can fight hard for 25 minutes, constantly mixing pressure, combinations, and movement. Figueiredo has become far more cautious in recent years and no longer fights with the same aggression he showed during his flyweight title reign.

Can Figueiredo still pull off the upset?

There are still dangerous weapons on the Brazilian side. Figueiredo remains an excellent grappler with elite submission skills, especially his guillotine. Song has shown defensive improvements on the ground, but he can still leave openings during scrambles.

Figueiredo also remains incredibly tough and experienced. He survived tough fights against top competition like Umar Nurmagomedov and Cory Sandhagen, proving he is still durable enough to compete at a high level.

Still, over five rounds, the age gap and athletic decline are difficult to ignore.

Prediction

Song Yadong should be faster, fresher, and more active throughout the fight. Expect him to slowly overwhelm Figueiredo with volume and pressure before eventually finding a stoppage late.

Official prediction: Song Yadong via TKO (Rounds 4-5)

Zhang Mingyang vs Alonzo Menifield prediction

Odds: Zhang Mingyang -250 (1.40) | Alonzo Menifield +205 (3.05)

Both fighters enter this matchup looking to rebound after disappointing losses, but stylistically this fight feels far closer than the betting odds suggest.

Why Zhang Mingyang is dangerous

Zhang built major hype during his early UFC run with a string of violent first-round knockouts. The 27-year-old carries explosive power, strong forward pressure, and the kind of aggression that can overwhelm opponents quickly.

His wins over Anthony Smith and Ozzy Diaz showed how dangerous he can be when he gets momentum early. Zhang also appears to have solid durability in firefights, especially when exchanges happen in the pocket.

If he can pressure Menifield immediately and avoid getting dragged into a slower fight, an early knockout is absolutely possible.

The concern with Zhang

The loss to Johnny Walker exposed several major question marks. Zhang struggled badly with movement, calf kicks, and extended exchanges. Once the fight moved past the early chaos, his cardio and adaptability became issues.

There are also lingering concerns about his ground game and ability to deal with adversity. Many of his past losses came once opponents survived the early storm and forced him into deeper waters.

That becomes especially important against a veteran like Menifield.

Why Menifield could pull off the upset

Menifield may be 38, but power ages differently at light heavyweight. He has fought far tougher UFC competition over the years and has proven he can win in multiple ways, whether by knockout, submissions, or grinding decisions.

The veteran also has far more experience dealing with difficult moments inside the cage. If Zhang slows down or starts doubting himself after the first round, Menifield has the toughness and composure to turn the fight around.

The biggest issue for Menifield remains durability. His chin has looked increasingly vulnerable in recent years, and against a fast starter like Zhang, that is dangerous.

Prediction

This will likely be a volatile fight where the early minutes are critical. Zhang might win if he gets the quick finish, but if Menifield survives the opening storm, the momentum could swing hard in his favor.

At plus money, the veteran underdog has real value here.

Official prediction: Alonzo Menifield via Round 2 submission/TKO

Sergei Pavlovich vs Tallison Teixeira prediction

Odds: Sergei Pavlovich -600 (1.17) | Tallison Teixeira +450 (5.50)

This heavyweight matchup will be a major step up in competition for Tallison Teixeira. While the Brazilian prospect has exciting offense and physical tools, the gap in experience and defensive reliability heavily favors Pavlovich.

Why Sergei Pavlovich is the clear favorite

Pavlovich remains one of the most dangerous punchers in the entire heavyweight division. Even after losses to Tom Aspinall and Alexander Volkov, he rebounded with smart decision wins and showed signs of evolution in his overall MMA game.

The Russian powerhouse has reportedly made major adjustments to his training and preparation following the Volkov defeat. He has also focused on improving his patience and decision-making instead of chasing reckless knockouts.

Still, this matchup looks like the perfect opportunity for him to return to his violent finishing style.

The problem with Tallison Teixeira

Teixeira is dangerous offensively. He throws fast kicks, has surprising athleticism for his size, and can create chaos early. But there are still massive concerns surrounding his defense, cardio, and ability to handle pressure from elite heavyweights.

The fight against Tai Tuivasa raised even more questions. Despite winning, Teixeira visibly slowed down and struggled once the fight moved beyond the opening moments.

Against someone like Pavlovich, those mistakes become far more dangerous.

Can Teixeira shock the division?

Heavyweight MMA always leaves room for chaos. Teixeira has real finishing ability and trains with elite names like Alex Pereira and Glover Teixeira.

If he lands something clean early or catches Pavlovich during an exchange, an upset is possible. His offense deserves respect.

But defensively, he still leaves too many openings against a heavyweight hitter of Pavlovich’s caliber.

Prediction

Pavlovich should eventually break through Teixeira’s defense and force a finish. The experience, power, composure, and overall polish all point toward the Russian contender.

Official prediction: Sergei Pavlovich via Round 2 KO/TKO

Kai Asakura vs Cameron Smotherman prediction

Odds: Kai Asakura -280 (1.36) | Cameron Smotherman +225 (3.25)

This is one of the trickiest fights to predict on the Macau card because both fighters enter on losing streaks and neither has truly proven themselves at this level recently.

Why Kai Asakura is still favored

Despite his rough UFC start, Asakura remains the more explosive and dangerous athlete. The former RIZIN champion owns notable wins over elite names like Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi, showing he has genuine high-level ability.

His biggest weapon is still his knockout power and speed. Asakura is sharp at range, dangerous in sudden exchanges, and capable of ending fights instantly if he finds the right opening.

Moving up to bantamweight could also help him physically after difficult weight cuts at flyweight.

The concern with Asakura

The problem is that Asakura has looked vulnerable whenever he cannot get those explosive moments early. His grappling was exposed badly against Tim Elliott and Alexandre Pantoja, and his overall UFC performances have fallen well below expectations.

There is also uncertainty about how his power translates at 135 pounds. At flyweight, he was often the much larger athlete. That physical edge disappears at bantamweight.

Why Smotherman has upset potential

Smotherman is the cleaner technical boxer over extended rounds. If he survives the early danger and forces a slower striking match, he could outpoint Asakura with volume and discipline.

There are still concerns about his durability and overall UFC ceiling, but stylistically this matchup may suit him better than facing dominant grapplers like Ricky Simon.

The major unknown remains the fainting incident during his canceled January weigh-in, which adds another layer of uncertainty heading into this fight.

Prediction

Asakura is the more dangerous fighter overall, especially early. But the betting line seems wider than it should be given how little he has shown inside the UFC so far. If he wins, it likely comes through a finish rather than a clean decision performance.

Official prediction: Kai Asakura via Round 1-2 KO/TKO

Jake Matthews vs Carlston Harris prediction

Odds: Jake Matthews -370 (1.27) | Carlston Harris +290 (3.90)

Jake Matthews enters this matchup in a much stronger position despite coming off a loss. The Australian veteran has quietly developed into a very solid all-around welterweight, while Carlston Harris appears to be slowing down physically at 38 years old.

Why Jake Matthews should win

Matthews was actually performing well against Neil Magny before the controversial stoppage confusion completely changed the momentum of the fight. He appeared to submit Magny in Round 1, celebrated the win, then had to restart the fight after the referee reversed the call.

Despite the bizarre circumstances, Matthews still showed strong striking, grappling, and composure throughout large portions of the fight.

At 31 years old, Matthews is like the more complete and athletic fighter entering this matchup. His boxing is cleaner, his movement is sharper, and he carries more variety across all areas of MMA.

Problems for Carlston Harris

Harris remains dangerous because of his power and front-choke submissions, but many of his recent performances have exposed defensive flaws and durability concerns.

The Guyanese veteran has been hurt repeatedly in recent fights, including stoppage losses to Khaos Williams and difficult moments against Santiago Ponzinibbio.

He still possesses fight-ending tools, especially with opportunistic submissions, but Matthews appears well-equipped to avoid those dangerous scrambles.

Why Matthews has the stylistic edge

Matthews should be able to control the striking exchanges with straight punches, cleaner footwork, and better range management. Harris often relies on looping hooks and explosive moments, while Matthews tends to operate behind tighter combinations and more technical boxing fundamentals.

The grappling edge may also lean toward Matthews. Harris has dangerous front chokes, but Matthews is likely the stronger overall wrestler and jiu-jitsu player at this stage.

The age difference also matters here. Matthews is entering his physical prime, while Harris has accumulated a lot of damage over the years.

Prediction

Harris is dangerous early, but Matthews should gradually take over with cleaner striking and superior pace. If the Australian lands consistently, the damage will likely build quickly.

Official prediction: Jake Matthews via Round 2 KO/TKO

Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji prediction

Alex Perez vs Sumudaerji prediction

Odds: Alex Perez -140 (1.71) | Sumudaerji +120 (2.20)

This is one of the most difficult fights to predict on the Macau card because both fighters have very clear strengths that directly target the other man’s weaknesses.

Alex Perez’ path to victory

Perez remains one of the strongest wrestlers in the UFC flyweight division. His ability to chain takedowns together, control opponents on the mat, and dictate pace can completely shut down dangerous strikers when he sticks to his game plan.

That matters heavily here because Sumudaerji has historically struggled with grappling and takedown defense throughout his career. Fighters who can consistently pressure him with wrestling have often been able to neutralize his striking.

Perez also has the experience advantage against elite-level competition and has shown he can compete with some of the best flyweights in the world.

Why Sumudaerji is dangerous

On the feet, Sumudaerji is clearly the more polished striker. His movement, range control, kicking game, and overall striking fluidity are all superior to Perez’s.

Size is another massive factor in this matchup. Sumudaerji is huge for a flyweight at 5’8″ with a 72-inch reach, while Perez is one of the smaller flyweights on the UFC roster. That difference could become extremely noticeable in open striking exchanges.

The Chinese contender should be able to use his length to keep Perez at range with straight punches, kicks, and counters whenever the fight remains standing.

Momentum also favors Sumudaerji. He enters the fight riding a three-fight winning streak and appears much more comfortable and confident than earlier in his UFC career.

The biggest concern for Perez

The biggest issue with Perez throughout his career has been consistency. Even in fights where he performs well early, he has often made costly mistakes or allowed momentum to swing against him.

If Perez cannot secure takedowns consistently or starts forcing desperate entries, Sumudaerji’s striking advantage could quickly take over. The longer the fight stays standing, the more dangerous it becomes for Perez.

Prediction

Perez likely finds some early success with wrestling and pressure, but Sumudaerji’s size, movement, and striking should become more effective as the fight progresses. If Perez slows down or leaves openings during takedown attempts, Sumudaerji has the tools to capitalize in a big way.

Official prediction: Sumudaerji via TKO