Dricus Du Plessis returns with a point to prove after losing the middleweight title to Khamzat Chimaev, while Kamaru Usman makes another run at greatness by chasing championship gold in a second weight class. On paper, it looks like youth versus experience. In reality, it’s one of the most fascinating stylistic matchups of the year.
When this fight was announced, my immediate reaction was simple: DDP all day.But after going back through the tape, I started seeing far more paths for Usman than I originally expected.
I still believe Du Plessis wins, I just don’t think it’ll be easy.
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman odds: Is the betting market starting to believe in Usman?
- Dricus Du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman odds: Dricus Du Plessis -230 (1.43) | Kamaru Usman +190 (2.90)
The opening betting lines heavily favored the younger fighter. Du Plessis opened between -245 and -340, while Usman came back as a sizeable underdog between +200 and +270. Since then, however, the line has narrowed. DDP now sits around -230, while Usman has shortened to roughly +190.
That tells me bettors are giving Usman more respect than they did initially. One major reason is his performance against Khamzat Chimaev. Many believe that had their short-notice fight been scheduled for five rounds instead of three, Usman would’ve taken over late with his conditioning and wrestling.
Another interesting market trend is the expectation that this fight reaches the judges. Prediction markets currently give roughly a 42% implied probability that this contest goes the distance. If Du Plessis finds a finish, bettors slightly favor it coming in the second round after he has spent the opening frame reading Usman’s movement and legendary takedown defense.
Can DDP finally solve his biggest weakness and stay on his feet?
This is the biggest question entering the fight. Nobody doubts Du Plessis offensively. His striking is dangerous, his jiu-jitsu is excellent and his cardio is outstanding. The concern has always been his defensive wrestling.
We saw Derek Brunson expose it years ago. We saw Khamzat Chimaev use it again during their title fight. DDP can struggle against elite wrestlers who consistently put him on his back and keep him there.
I’d be surprised if that wasn’t the main focus during his year away. Coach Morne Visser has proven himself to be one of the better coaches in the sport, and I’d expect Du Plessis to return with improved takedown defense and a better ability to scramble back to his feet. If that’s the case, this becomes an incredibly difficult fight for Usman.
Why Du Plessis remains one of MMA’s toughest puzzles
Nobody fights quite like Dricus Du Plessis. His striking looks awkward, he crashes into range and throws looping punches from strange angles. He’s constantly mixing punches with body kicks, calf kicks and blitzing combinations. Yet somehow, it works against elite competition. His output is relentless, and judges love activity.
Even when he isn’t landing clean, he’s constantly forcing exchanges and making opponents uncomfortable. Israel Adesanya couldn’t solve it and neither could Robert Whittaker. Sean Strickland struggled with it across ten rounds.
I also have a new appreciation for his kicking game after rewatching several of his recent fights. His body kicks and high kicks are deceptively fast, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they become a major weapon against Usman.
Trevor Wittman may be Usman’s greatest advantage
The biggest reason I’m not counting Usman out is Trevor Wittman. What Justin Gaethje accomplished against Ilia Topuria showcased just how valuable Wittman’s game planning remains. Add Henry Hooft to the equation, and Usman enters this fight with two outstanding striking coaches.
I expect a disciplined approach, which will include Usman’s trademark heavy jab, and a sprinkling of straight right hands. He’s also a far more technical boxer than Du Plessis. His best approach will be to mixing punche into level changes.
If he can force DDP to respect the jab before mixing in his wrestling, he’ll give himself every opportunity to steal rounds.
Can the former champion still dominate with his wrestling?
Everything comes down to the wrestling. If Usman repeatedly takes Du Plessis down and keeps him there, he can absolutely win this fight. His top control remains excellent. His ground-and-pound is underrated.
He doesn’t have Chimaev’s submission threat, but he doesn’t necessarily need it. The problem is that this isn’t prime Kamaru Usman anymore. He’s 39 years old, with long stretches of inactivity.
While the Buckley performance was impressive, we also saw Buckley begin defending takedowns later in the fight. Shawn Brady’s dominant win over Buckley also slightly reduced the shine on that performance.
Why I think DDP eventually pulls away
Usman can absolutely wrestle. I just don’t think he can sustain that pace for five rounds against someone as physically strong and explosive as Du Plessis.
Early on, I expect Usman to look excellent. He will land a few jabs and probably secure one or two takedowns, likely winning at least one of the opening rounds.
But as the fight progresses, I think the momentum shifts. Du Plessis has already spent two full camps preparing for elite jabs against Sean Strickland. He knows how to parry the jab, counter over the top and fire back with kicks.
Once Usman’s energy bar drops, his wrestling becomes less effective, meanwhile, DDP’s pressure becomes overwhelming. His pace will increase, and he will throw longer combinations while mixing in body kicks.
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman prediction
But Du Plessis is entering his physical prime, while Usman appears to be making one final run at championship glory. The size difference, the output, the kicking game and what I expect to be improved defensive wrestling are enough for me to side with the South African.
Usman is still incredibly durable, outside of the Leon Edwards head-kick knockout, so I don’t necessarily expect a finish. But if someone gets stopped, I think it’s Du Plessis overwhelming Usman late with volume and power.
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Kamaru Usman prediction: Dricus Du Plessis defeats Kamaru Usman via unanimous decision.
Best bet: Dricus Du Plessis moneyline (-230)
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (4/5)