There are few events in combat sports that can match the excitement of a Conor McGregor comeback. UFC 329 delivers exactly that as the former two-division champion steps back into the Octagon for the first time in five years to face Max Holloway in a rematch more than a decade after their first meeting. Back then, both men were still developing into elite fighters. Today, they enter the cage with vastly different stories.
McGregor is attempting one of the most ambitious comebacks in UFC history after recovering from the devastating leg injury he suffered against Dustin Poirier in 2021. Holloway, meanwhile, has remained one of the sport’s most active stars, facing a steady stream of elite competition while continuing to evolve his striking game.
That contrast makes this matchup fascinating. One fighter is surrounded by mystery. The other has answered nearly every question throughout the past five years.
Here are my predictions for Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway 2
McGregor vs Holloway odds
McGregor +175 | Holloway -210
The UFC betting market has tightened considerably as fight week approaches. Max Holloway remains the favorite, but the gap between the two fighters is much smaller than it was when the matchup was first announced. McGregor initially opened as one of the biggest underdogs of his UFC career, yet a wave of support from bettors has significantly shortened his price.
When the fight was announced in May, Holloway opened as a heavy -400 favorite, giving him an implied win probability of around 80%, while McGregor was listed between +310 and +330.
Since then, the betting lines have has shifted dramatically. Holloway now sits in the -194 to -220 range, while McGregor has shortened to between +170 and +195. Recent betting data also shows that approximately 64% of moneyline tickets have been placed on McGregor.
Why this matchup is far more competitive than it appears
At first glance, this looks like an impossible assignment for McGregor.Five years away from competition. A catastrophic leg injury. A return against one of the greatest volume strikers the UFC has ever seen.
Yet there are reasons Holloway cannot overlook his opponent. McGregor still possesses some of the cleanest counter striking in MMA history. His left hand remains one of the sport’s most dangerous weapons, but it is far from his only threat. His lead uppercut, front kicks, spinning attacks, knees and creative clinch work have always complemented the straight left that built his career.
The biggest question is whether those weapons will still function at the same level after such a lengthy absence. Unlike most returning fighters, McGregor has kept this training camp unusually private. Very little footage has surfaced. There are almost no clues about how he currently moves or whether he has regained the fluid footwork that made him nearly untouchable during his championship run.
That uncertainty creates both excitement and risk. He could return looking rejuvenated. Or he could struggle with timing and conditioning against one of the busiest fighters on the roster.
The five-year layoff cannot be ignored
Every McGregor preview eventually circles back to the same issue. How much does five years away from competition matter? Training and sparring simply cannot replicate fighting five rounds against one of the UFC’s elite.
Since McGregor last fought, Holloway has continued competing against world-class opposition. He has shared the cage with Justin Gaethje, Dustin Poirier, Ilia Topuria, Charles Oliveira, Arnold Allen and Yair Rodriguez while constantly refining his game.
McGregor enters this fight fresh in one sense because he has avoided the damage that comes with multiple training camps and title fights. At the same time, activity is often one of the biggest advantages in mixed martial arts, particularly against an opponent who thrives as fights become longer. Ring rust may not affect every athlete equally, but a five-year absence is difficult to dismiss.
Does fighting at 170 pounds help either man?
The welterweight limit creates another intriguing variable. McGregor appears significantly larger than the version that fought at lightweight years ago. Competing at 170 should allow him to carry more power while avoiding a severe weight cut.
However, extra muscle may also reduce some of the movement and bounce that defined his prime years.
Holloway benefits differently. Rather than draining himself to make weight, he should enter the fight fresher and with better endurance. Since permanently moving above featherweight, Holloway has looked physically stronger while carrying noticeably more power.
I believe that neither fighter gains a massive advantage simply because of the weight class. McGregor may be the naturally bigger athlete, but Holloway should enjoy better conditioning throughout a potential five-round fight.
Conor McGregor’s advantages
At his peak, McGregor controlled distance better than almost anyone in MMA. He excelled at forcing opponents into mistakes before punishing them with precision counters. His long karate stance, blended with sharp boxing fundamentals, allowed him to dictate range while constantly threatening the straight left.
His most dangerous performances came when he stayed patient. Rather than charging into exchanges, he would lure opponents forward before punishing predictable entries.
That patient version of McGregor largely disappeared after his boxing match vs Floyd Mayweather. In his fights against Dustin Poirier, he became flatter on his feet, with a much more square stance.
McGregor’s best path to victory
McGregor’s best chance comes early. He must establish the center of the cage immediately and prevent Holloway from finding his rhythm. Heavy pressure, explosive counters and early power are his greatest advantages.
The opening two rounds are critical. If McGregor can hurt Holloway before the Hawaiian settles into his trademark pace, the upset becomes very realistic.
He also needs to attack with variety rather than relying exclusively on the left hand. Body kicks, uppercuts and clinch strikes could help slow Holloway’s relentless output.
Which version of Conor will we see? Boxer Conor or Karate-stance Conor?
One of the most interesting questions is which stance Conor will fight in.
The boxer-heavy McGregor that fought Dustin Poirier stood square in the pocket, relied more on his hands and abandoned much of the movement that made him nearly untouchable during his prime. While he still landed clean shots, he became easier to pressure and more vulnerable to calf kicks and prolonged exchanges.
The other version is the long-range, karate-stance McGregor that dismantled José Aldo, Eddie Alvarez and Chad Mendes. That Conor constantly switched between bouncing in and out of range, setting traps with his lead hand and forcing opponents to overcommit before firing his trademark left hand. His footwork, distance management and unpredictability were every bit as dangerous as his punching power.
My expectation is that we’ll see something in between. After five years away, it is unrealistic to expect McGregor to move exactly as he did a decade ago. Carrying more muscle at 170 pounds could also limit some of that trademark bounce. Still, a return to a wider stance with more movement is almost essential against Holloway.
Standing in the pocket and trading combinations with one of the highest-volume strikers in UFC history is a dangerous game. If McGregor wants to maximize his chances, he needs to fight behind his footwork, manage distance and make Holloway chase him into counters rather than engaging in extended exchanges.
Max Holloway’s advantages
Holloway remains one of the best pure strikers the UFC has ever produced. His cardio is legendary, and his pace rarely drops. Most importantly, his striking has evolved considerably during recent years.
Earlier in his career, Holloway often relied almost entirely on pressure and volume. Today he is much more measured. He uses lateral movement, changes rhythm, draws counters and picks his moments instead of throwing endless combinations.
That evolution makes him a more complete striker than the version McGregor defeated years ago.
There are still questions surrounding Holloway’s durability. After years of fighting elite opposition, he has been dropped more frequently than earlier in his career, and Ilia Topuria became the first man to knock him out.
Holloway’s best path to victory
Patience will be essential. The opening rounds belong to McGregor’s danger zone, where his speed and power remain at their highest.
Holloway cannot afford to stand directly in front of him during those exchanges. Instead, he should use movement, attack the body and gradually force McGregor to work at a pace he has not experienced in years.
As the fight progresses, Holloway’s advantages become more pronounced. His cardio, output and experience fighting elite competition should begin creating separation during the championship rounds.
If McGregor starts slowing down, Holloway is one of the best fighters in MMA at recognizing that moment and dramatically increasing his volume.
Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway 2 prediction
McGregor is one of the few fighters capable of producing the unimaginable. Even after five years away, his power and counter striking remain genuine fight-ending threats. If he lands clean during the opening rounds, Holloway could be in serious trouble.
But over twenty-five minutes, Holloway simply owns more reliable advantages. He has remained active against elite competition while continuously improving. His movement has become more sophisticated, his power has translated well to higher weight classes, and his conditioning gives him a significant edge as the fight extends. Long layoffs and leg breaks do not favor championship-level fights.
I expect McGregor to win several key exchanges in the opening rounds before Holloway gradually begins to take over. As the pace increases, Holloway’s pressure should force McGregor into longer exchanges and make it increasingly difficult for him to maintain the movement and explosiveness that defined his prime. By the fourth round, Holloway’s relentless output should overwhelm a tiring McGregor, leading to a referee stoppage after sustained punishment.
Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway prediction: Max Holloway def. Conor McGregor via TKO (Round 4).
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Best bet: Max Holloway moneyline
Why this fight has me worried for McGregor
Unlike most MMA fighters, Max Holloway is a volume puncher. So, while he will likely not KO McGregor early, that only means more time for damage to accumulate. Look what he did to some of his previous opponents, like Justin Gaethje, Brian Ortega and Calvin Kattar. Holloway gradually overwhelmed each of them, forcing mistakes and piling up damage as the rounds wore on. Against Kattar, he landed a record-breaking 445 strikes, while landing 290 on Kattar and 180 on Geathje.
What worries me most isn’t whether McGregor loses, I am more worried if he does not get knocked out. He has already endured years of brutal battles, a devastating leg break, and a five-year absence from competition. Imagine if he now has to endure 25 minutes of “Blessed” styling on him, and landing hundreds of punches. McGregor might never be the same.