Two undefeated flyweights collide at UFC Shanghai as Bilal Hasan faces Nilson Rojas in a battle of 9-0 prospects. Here are my official predictions for Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas.
Hasan is looking to build on his DWCS hype
Hasan enters as one of the biggest favorites on the card after earning his UFC contract on Dana White’s Contender Series only 18 days ago. Rojas has received far less attention, but the Peruvian brings an unbeaten record, legitimate knockout power and considerably more danger than the UFC betting line might suggest.
Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas odds
Bilal Hasan is currently a massive -800 (1.13) favorite, with Nilson Rojas priced at +550 (6.50). That is a remarkable gap between two fighters who are both 9-0 and making their UFC debuts.
The market has moved heavily toward Hasan after he opened closer to -250. His 45-second DWCS knockout, combined with his stronger level of competition in CFFC, has clearly driven much of that action. However, the price now looks inflated by recency and hype.
The props are more interesting, with fight doesn’t go the distance at -240, Hasan by KO/TKO at -135 and Hasan in Round 1 at +230. Rojas by KO/TKO is way out at +1200, while over 1.5 rounds is priced at -160.
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Two undefeated records, but very different levels of hype
Both fighters arrive in Shanghai with identical 9-0 professional records, but Hasan has quickly become the much bigger name.
His UFC debut comes only 18 days after his appearance on Dana White’s Contender Series. Hasan needed just 45 seconds to knock out Mridul Saikia and earn his contract. He took virtually no damage, allowing him to make an unusually fast turnaround.
Before DWCS, Hasan had already built a strong résumé in CFFC. He stopped Renaldy Manse with a body punch, finished Jason Eastman in the fourth round and knocked out Brian Hauser in the second. Eight of his nine professional victories have come inside the distance.
Rojas has taken a quieter route to the UFC. The Peruvian has competed primarily on the South American regional scene, where he has also shown serious finishing ability. Seven of his nine victories have come by KO or TKO. His latest appearance was different, however, as he went three rounds with Gonzalo Hanampa and earned a unanimous decision in July.
Is Hasan’s hype getting out of control?
Hasan deserves to be the favorite, but there is a big difference between making him the favorite and pricing him at -800.
His Contender Series performance was spectacular, but it also came against an opponent Hasan was overwhelmingly expected to beat. Rojas represents a more legitimate test.
The Peruvian has a dangerous boxing style, throws with real power and has shown that he can maintain his output deeper into a fight. Hasan has also been hit cleanly in previous fights. Against an opponent with seven knockouts, that creates at least some risk.
This is still a fight Hasan should win. He is the more polished striker and has faced the better competition. But at these odds, bettors are being asked to treat him like a proven UFC contender rather than a 9-0 prospect making his promotional debut.
How Bilal Hasan can win
Hasan’s biggest advantage should be his variety. Rojas carries dangerous hands, but Hasan has more tools at range. He can attack the legs, mix kicks into his combinations and force Rojas to react to threats from different levels rather than simply settling into a boxing match.
Patience could be important here. Hasan demolished Saikia almost immediately, but there is little reason to chase the same type of finish against a more dangerous opponent.
If Hasan controls the range early, attacks the legs and gradually establishes his rhythm, openings should become available as Rojas slows down. Hasan’s body attacks could also become increasingly important as the fight progresses.
Keys to victory for Hasan:
- Use kicks to control distance
- Avoid unnecessary exchanges in the pocket
- Attack the legs and body early
- Increase the pressure once Rojas begins slowing
How Nilson Rojas can pull off the upset
Rojas needs to make the fight uncomfortable. Trying to outpoint Hasan from long range is unlikely to work. The underdog’s best weapon is his power, and he needs to create opportunities to land it.
Hasan has been tagged before, and Rojas is dangerous enough to punish a mistake. Closing distance behind combinations and forcing Hasan into boxing exchanges gives him a much better chance than allowing the favorite to dictate the fight with kicks.
The problem is that Rojas has faced a lower level of competition. He now has to prove that his power and pressure translate against a faster and more technically developed opponent.
Keys to victory for Rojas:
- Pressure Hasan toward the fence
- Take away kicking range
- Force extended boxing exchanges
- Make Hasan pay for aggressive entries
Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas prediction
Hasan should win, but this could be considerably more competitive than the odds suggest. Rojas is not simply another opponent brought in to showcase Hasan. He is undefeated, hits hard and appears capable of maintaining a solid pace. That should make Hasan more cautious than he was during his 45-second Contender Series demolition.
I expect Hasan to spend the opening round finding his distance rather than immediately hunting another highlight-reel knockout. His kicking game should gradually become a bigger factor, and his superior striking variety should allow him to take control as the fight develops.
Rojas is tough enough to survive the early exchanges and potentially land some meaningful shots of his own. Eventually, however, Hasan should begin consistently beating him to the target. Still a later stoppage or even a decision win looks more likely than another first-round blowout. Lightning does not always strike twice!
Official Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas prediction: Bilal Hasan by decision
Best bets for Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas
Making UFC predictions is one thing. But choosing the best bet is something else if you are chasing value. My biggest issue is Hasan’s moneyline. At -800, there is almost no value in betting an inexperienced prospect simply because he is expected to win. I would also keep Hasan out of parlays. Both fighters are still early in their careers, and Rojas has enough power to make laying this kind of price unnecessarily risky.
Hasan by KO/TKO at -135 is far more attractive than his moneyline if you want to back the favorite. The over 1.5 rounds at -160 also deserves consideration if Rojas proves durable enough to prevent Hasan from producing another immediate finish.
At +550, however, there is an argument that the most interesting straight betting opportunity is actually Rojas. The line implies an enormous gap between two undefeated prospects, and I am not convinced that gap has been established yet. A small underdog play is more defensible than paying -800 on Hasan.
For bettors looking for a long-shot angle, Rojas by KO/TKO at +1200 at least targets his clearest route to the upset.
Bilal Hasan vs Nilson Rojas prediction cheat sheet
| Market | Pick |
| Winner | Bilal Hasan |
| Method | Decision |
| Confidence | ⭐⭐☆ ☆ ☆ |
| Favorite prop | Hasan by KO/TKO (-135) |
| Underdog value | Rojas ML (+550) |
| Long-shot bet | Rojas by KO/TKO (+1200) |
| Parlay advice | Keep Hasan out! |