Yan Xiaonan returns to action against Denise Gomes in an important women’s strawweight matchup between the division’s No. 4 and No. 14-ranked contenders.
Yan enters as the -150 favorite (1.67), while Gomes is available at +125 (2.25). On paper, it is a classic veteran-versus-prospect matchup. Yan has already fought for UFC gold and owns wins over Mackenzie Dern and Jéssica Andrade. Gomes, meanwhile, is 26 years old and riding a four-fight winning streak.
There is an 11-year age gap between them, and Yan has also been out of competition since April 2025. Does the veteran still have enough to keep another young contender out of the strawweight elite?
Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes odds
| Fighter | Odds | Decimal |
| Yan Xiaonan | -150 | 1.67 |
| Denise Gomes | +125 | 2.25 |
Yan opened around -135 to -145, but money has moved toward the former title challenger. Some UFC sportsbooks have pushed her price as far as -165 or -170.
That movement makes sense when comparing their résumés. Yan has shared the Octagon with Zhang Weili, Virna Jandiroba, Mackenzie Dern and Jéssica Andrade. Gomes has put together an impressive run, but this is comfortably the biggest test of her UFC career.
The market also expects a decision. Fight Goes the Distance is priced around -275 to -312, while Yan by decision can be found around +110 to +125 UFC odds.
Where to bet on Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes
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Yan Xiaonan: Experience and counter striking
Yan’s recent record is somewhat misleading. She has lost two of her last three fights, but those defeats came against Zhang Weili in a UFC title fight and Virna Jandiroba. Between those losses, she defeated Tabatha Ricci by unanimous decision.
Her last five fights:
- Loss vs. Virna Jandiroba — Unanimous Decision
- Win vs. Tabatha Ricci — Unanimous Decision
- Loss vs. Zhang Weili — Unanimous Decision
- Win vs. Jéssica Andrade — KO/TKO, Round 1
- Win vs. Mackenzie Dern — Majority Decision
The matchup itself should suit Yan. Gomes likes to move forward, apply pressure and trust her power. She is willing to absorb strikes to land her own offense. That creates opportunities against one of the better counter strikers in the strawweight division.
Yan has dealt with this type of aggression before. The clearest example came against Andrade, whom she stopped in the opening round. Gomes is not Andrade, but there are similarities in the way both fighters rely on physicality, pressure and punching power to close the distance.
Yan should have the cleaner footwork and more polished distance management. If Gomes repeatedly charges into range, Yan has the timing to intercept her and score before moving away.
The concern is Yan’s age and inactivity. She is now 37 and has not competed since April 2025. At this stage of a fighter’s career, a 15-plus-month absence is difficult to ignore. Yan doesn’t necessarily need to have declined dramatically for this fight to become much closer than her previous performances suggest.
Denise Gomes: Is this her breakthrough moment?
Gomes enters with considerably more momentum. The Brazilian has won four straight fights:
- Win vs. Tecia Pennington — Unanimous Decision
- Win vs. Elise Reed — TKO, Round 2
- Win vs. Karolina Kowalkiewicz — Unanimous Decision
- Win vs. Eduarda Moura — Unanimous Decision
- Loss vs. Angela Hill — Unanimous Decision
At 26, Gomes should still be improving. That makes the timing of this matchup particularly interesting. Yan’s best days could already be behind her, while Gomes may not have reached her ceiling yet.
Gomes brings aggression, durability and legitimate power for the division. She doesn’t need a technically clean fight. In fact, turning this into a physical battle probably gives her the best chance of producing the upset. The problem is the jump in competition.
Beating veterans such as Tecia Pennington and Karolina Kowalkiewicz is valuable, but neither presents the same striking challenge as Yan. Gomes has never faced an opponent ranked this highly, and her defensive tendencies could become a major problem.
She often accepts being hit in order to return combinations. Against Yan, those exchanges may begin with Gomes eating a clean counter before she gets close enough to fire back.
Is the age difference enough to back Gomes?
This is the biggest question surrounding the fight. An 11-year age gap is significant, especially when the younger fighter is 26 and entering her athletic prime while the older fighter is 37. Gomes should be faster physically, more durable and capable of maintaining a higher pace if the fight becomes messy. She also has fewer miles on her body.
There is a realistic scenario where Yan remains the more technically skilled fighter but Gomes simply overwhelms her with youth, pressure and physicality. However, picking Gomes requires us to assume Yan has declined enough for those advantages to overcome a fairly substantial technical gap. I’m not ready to make that assumption. Yan doesn’t need to dominate physically. She needs her timing, footwork and counter striking to remain sharp enough for 15 minutes. Gomes’ aggressive style should give her plenty of opportunities to score.
Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes prediction
This is closer than Yan’s résumé might suggest. Gomes’ youth, momentum and four-fight winning streak make her a dangerous underdog. Yan’s inactivity at 37 also adds uncertainty that wouldn’t exist if this matchup had happened a few years earlier. Still, stylistically, I favor Yan. Gomes’ willingness to march forward and absorb strikes plays directly into Yan’s counter-striking game. Yan should be able to use lateral movement, maintain distance and repeatedly catch Gomes as she enters.
Gomes will have moments, particularly when she can force Yan backward and turn the fight into extended exchanges. But over three rounds, I expect Yan’s cleaner work and superior distance management to produce the more convincing scoring sequences. The moneyline becomes less attractive if Yan moves toward -170. Yan by decision around +110 to +125 offers a better betting angle given how heavily the market favors this fight reaching the scorecards.
Yan Xiaonan vs Denise Gomes prediction: Yan Xiaonan by decisision
| Prediction | |
| Pick | Yan Xiaonan |
| Method | Unanimous Decision |
| Confidence | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ |
| Best Bet | Yan Xiaonan by Decision (+110 to +125) |