UFC 328 feels like one of the biggest cards the promotion has put together in years. From top to bottom, the lineup is packed with title fights, dangerous contenders, veteran matchups, and stylistic clashes that could produce absolute chaos inside the Octagon.
The main event sees middleweight champion Khamzat Chimaev defend his belt against former champion Sean Strickland in a fight filled with genuine bad blood. Meanwhile, the co-main event may end up stealing the show as flyweight champion Joshua Van takes on elite Japanese grappler Tatsuro Taira.
Earlier on the card, Sean Brady faces explosive knockout artist Joaquin Buckley in a massive welterweight clash, while Alexander Volkov and Waldo Cortes Acosta battle in what could become a heavyweight title eliminator.
And the main card opener sees two lightweight veterans duke it out in what will likely be a power vs. precision war.
The prelims are loaded as well, featuring rising prospects, underrated veterans, and several fights that feel much closer than the betting odds suggest.
Here are my full UFC 328 predictions, pick and fight breakdowns, along with betting odds for every fight on the card.
The image below show my full predictions:
UFC 328 King Green vs. Jeremy Stephens Predictions
Odds: King Green (-305 / 1.33) vs. Jeremy Stephens (+245 / 3.45)
This feels like the sleeper fight of the UFC 328 main card. Two longtime veterans with over 100 combined professional fights are about to throw down, and stylistically this matchup could produce absolute chaos.
Why Jeremy Stephens is still dangerous
Even at nearly 40 years old, Stephens still carries frightening knockout power. That has never disappeared. The issue is the résumé over recent years. Stephens is winless in his last seven UFC fights, and his last UFC victory came all the way back in 2018 against Josh Emmett.
Still, context matters. Stephens spent four years away from the UFC competing in BKFC, where his aggressive style and power translated much better. He also faced extremely difficult stylistic matchups during the end of his original UFC run, including grapplers like Mateusz Gamrot.
This matchup favors him more. Green is not going to wrestle heavily. He is going to stand and strike for large portions of the fight, which automatically gives Stephens opportunities to land.
The calf kicks especially stand out. Stephens still throws brutal low kicks, and historically those kicks have caused huge problems for opponents. If he can slow Green’s movement early, the fight immediately becomes more dangerous.
Why Green remains the rightful favorite
Green may be in the best form of his career. His recent performance against Daniel Zellhuber shocked fans and analysts alike. Despite being older, and smaller, Green completely controlled the fight with timing, defense, and counter punching.
Stylistically, this matchup also favors him. Stephens throws big looping punches, which is exactly the type of offense Green loves to counter. Stephens, meanwhile, telegraphs many of his biggest attacks from distance. That creates opportunities for Green to slip, counter, and pile up volume. Green’s shoulder rolls, head movement, and pull counters are built to punish wild power shots.
Keys to victory
Green
- Counter Stephens’ looping punches
- Pressure behind combinations
- Avoid prolonged calf kick damage
- Stay disciplined defensively
Stephens
- Attack Green’s legs early
- Force pocket exchanges
- Land overhand right consistently
- Turn fight chaotic
Final prediction
King Green defeats Jeremy Stephens by second-round TKO
Stephens absolutely has upset potential because of his power. Against a low-hand defensive fighter like Green, one clean shot can instantly change everything.
Still, Green’s timing, defense, and boxing IQ should allow him to slowly take over the fight as the rounds progress. The biggest danger remains the calf kicks. If Green pressures enough to take those away, he should control most exchanges.
I expect to see Stephens punching air while being picked apart by Green’s cleaner punches.
UFC 328 Sean Brady vs. Joaquin Buckley Predictions
Odds: Sean Brady (-185 / 1.54) vs. Joaquin Buckley (+154 / 2.54)
This fight is one of the clearest striker-versus-grappler matchups on the UFC 328 main card. Yes, both men are more complete than that label suggests. Brady can strike. Buckley can wrestle. But stylistically, the paths to victory are obvious. Brady wants takedowns and top pressure. Buckley wants space to explode with power shots.
Why Buckley is such a dangerous underdog
There is real value on Buckley at plus money. His athleticism, explosiveness, and knockout power immediately make him dangerous every second the fight stays standing. The knockout over Stephen Thompson remains one of the best examples of how quickly Buckley can close distance and land devastating shots against elite strikers.
The physical side matters too. Buckley is naturally explosive, fast, and physically strong enough that Brady may not be able to bully him the way he bullied other welterweights.
There is also the chin question surrounding Brady. Losses against Belal Muhammad and Michael Morales showed vulnerability against powerful pressure strikers. If Buckley lands cleanly, Brady could absolutely be in danger. And every round begins standing and that alone gives Buckley opportunities.
Why Brady still deserves to be the favorite
The grappling gap is significant. Brady remains one of the best pure grapplers in the welterweight division. His wrestling, top control, and submission game create serious problems for almost everybody at 170 pounds.
The weight difference may also become enormous. Reports suggest Brady walks around close to 200 pounds while Buckley walks around much lighter despite previously competing at middleweight.
That matters heavily in grappling exchanges. Extra size and pressure become exhausting when defending takedowns, standing back up, or fighting submissions. Brady’s top control could feel suffocating if Buckley gets stuck underneath him for extended periods.
Buckley’s takedown defense also remains a concern. Kamaru Usman controlled him repeatedly, and while Brady may not possess Usman’s exact wrestling style, he brings far more submission danger once fights hit the mat.
Keys to victory
Brady
- Pressure behind straight punches
- Time takedowns off Buckley’s blitzes
- Force prolonged grappling exchanges
- Attack submissions immediately on the mat
Buckley
- Keep the fight standing
- Use footwork early
- Punish level changes with uppercuts and hooks
- Hurt Brady any way he can
Final prediction
Sean Brady defeats Joaquin Buckley by third-round submission or GNP TKO
Buckley absolutely has upset potential. If he stuffs enough takedowns early and forces extended striking exchanges, his speed and knockout power could completely change the fight instantly.
Still, the stylistic matchup favors Brady over time. The wrestling pressure, size advantage, and submission threats eventually feel like too much for Buckley to survive consistently across three rounds.
Still if you like the plus money, Joaquin Buckley is a live dog.
UFC 328 Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes Acosta Prediction
Odds: Alexander Volkov (-170 / 1.59) vs. Waldo Cortes Acosta (+142 / 2.42)
This heavyweight matchup might quietly be one of the trickiest fights to predict on the entire card. On paper, Volkov should probably win. He has the cleaner technique, the reach advantage, the kicking game, and far more five-round experience. But stylistically, there are real dangers here that make the betting line feel much closer than people think.
Why Waldo Cortes Acosta has real upset potential
Acosta enters this fight on a three-fight win streak and has won eight of his last nine overall. The only recent loss came against Sergei Pavlovich, which aged fairly well considering Pavlovich’s status in the division.
The interesting betting angle comes from comparing their performances vs Pavlovich. Both Volkov and Acosta closed around similar underdog prices against Pavlovich, which suggests oddsmakers and sharp bettors rated them relatively similarly entering those matchups. Volkov beat Pavlovich while Acosta lost, but the market perspective on their overall level may not actually be that far apart.
Acosta also has clear physical advantages in certain areas. He is faster, probably carries more raw knockout power, and arguably owns the better chin. His overhand right remains extremely dangerous, especially against tall heavyweights who can struggle defensively inside boxing exchanges.
That creates a real concern for Volkov because even in fights he dominates, he still absorbs clean shots every round. Against someone with Acosta’s power, that becomes dangerous immediately.
Why Volkov is still the rightful favorite
Volkov’s recent evolution as a striker has been impressive. Earlier in his UFC career, he spent too much time pocket boxing despite standing 6-foot-7 with enormous reach. Recently, he has become far more disciplined with jabs, push kicks, footwork, and range control.
That version of Volkov is extremely difficult to beat. Against Pavlovich, he completely shut down the dangerous Russian striker with movement, long-range weapons, and patience. He also showed improved grappling awareness against Jailton Almeida despite getting taken down multiple times.
The key in this matchup is distance. If Volkov keeps Acosta on the outside and avoids prolonged pocket exchanges, he should consistently score with jabs, kicks, and intercepting uppercuts. If Acosta gets inside repeatedly, the fight becomes much more dangerous.
We can’t forget the grappling factor either. While Volkov is not a pure grappler, he managed to hold down several of his opponents for extended periods. If he gets Acosta on the ground, chances are he will not get up before the end of the round, or at all.
Keys to victory
Volkov
- Fight behind the jab constantly
- Use push kicks and movement
- Avoid stationary boxing exchanges
- Control center cage position
Acosta
- Close distance aggressively
- Throw over Volkov’s jab
- Force chaotic exchanges
- Mix occasional takedown attempts
Final prediction
Alexander Volkov defeats Waldo Cortes Acosta by decision
Acosta absolutely has a path to victory. His power, speed, and durability make him live throughout the entire fight, especially at heavyweight where one punch changes everything instantly.
Still, Volkov simply has more ways to win. As long as he stays disciplined and fights long behind his jab and kicks, he should slowly pull away on the scorecards. He could also hold Acosta down for a boring yet effective decision.
Still, if you are a UFC betting man, you might consider a bet on Cortes Acosta. At heavyweight, one punch can change anything, and Cortes Acosta has a lot more than a punchers chance.
UFC 328 co-main event prediction: Joshua Van vs. Tatsuro Taira
Joshua Van (+140 / 2.40) vs. Tatsuro Taira (-166 / 1.60)
The co-main event at UFC 328 might quietly be the best fight on the entire card. It is another classic striker-versus-grappler matchup, but this one feels especially fascinating because both fighters may already be among the very best in the world at their respective specialties.
On one side stands flyweight champion Joshua Van, a technical boxing machine with incredible speed and volume. On the other stands Tatsuro Taira, an elite grappler many believe could become the next great Japanese UFC champion.
Why Taira is the betting favorite
The odds moved heavily toward Taira for good reason. Oddsmakers and sharp bettors clearly believe the grappling gap favors Taira more than the striking gap favors Van.
One of the biggest factors is physicality. Taira is huge for the division. He is taller, longer, wider, and physically stronger than Van. That matters enormously in grappling exchanges, especially at flyweight where small strength differences become very noticeable.
When Taira gets on top, his control becomes suffocating. His back takes, triangles, transitions, and submission chains are among the best seen at flyweight in years. Against Brandon Royval, he showed he could survive difficult moments while continuing to create dangerous grappling threats throughout the fight.
Against Brandon Moreno, who is a more accomplished grappler than Van, he won by second round TKO after taking him down.
Why Joshua Van still has a real chance
Van may honestly be the best pure boxer the flyweight division has ever seen. His combinations are clean, compact, fast, and technically beautiful. Analysts even compared him favorably to Ilia Topuria in terms of combination punching quality, which is enormous praise.
What makes Van special is not only the technique, but the composure. He rarely panics, throws excellent combinations in the pocket, and constantly pressures opponents with smart angles and volume. If Taira allows prolonged striking exchanges, Van could absolutely take over the fight.
There is also belief that Van’s athleticism could help him improve defensively against takedowns faster than most fighters. Still, the stylistic challenge remains massive.
Keys to victory
Joshua Van
- Close distance quickly
- Force boxing combinations
- Attack the body consistently
- Defend takedowns early
Tatsuro Taira
- Use long jab and kicks
- Force grappling exchanges
- Use ground and pound to set up submissions
- Maintain top control
UFC 328 Co-main Prediction
Tatsuro Taira defeats Joshua Van by third-round submission
Van absolutely has paths to victory. If he keeps the fight standing for extended stretches, his boxing could overwhelm Taira with speed and volume. There is even real knockout potential if Taira struggles entering safely.
Still, the size difference, grappling advantage, and stylistic matchup continue pointing toward Taira. Eventually, the takedowns and back takes likely become too much to survive. Even though my prediction is a submission win, I would not be surprised if he goes for the ground and pound TKO, like he did versus Moreno.
UFC 328 main event prediction: Khamzat Chimaev vs. Sean Strickland
Odds: Khamzat Chimaev (-575 / 1.17) vs. Sean Strickland (+425 / 5.25)
UFC 328 closes with one of the most heated middleweight title fights in years. The undefeated champion Khamzat Chimaev enters his first title defense as a massive betting favorite, and many already view him as one of the most dominant grapplers the UFC has ever seen. The fight has seen some of the best buildup we have seen in years, with months of trashtalk leading up to a chaotic press conference. Still, this matchup feels more complicated than the odds suggest.
Why Chimaev is such a massive favorite
Chimaev’s rise has been unlike almost anything seen in modern MMA. He is 15-0 overall, 9-0 in the UFC, and his wrestling pressure continues to overwhelm elite opponents. Analysts and fighters alike keep emphasizing the same thing: everybody knows what Chimaev wants to do, and nobody can stop it.
His performance against Dricus du Plessis only strengthened that belief. Even though the fight became competitive late, Chimaev controlled large portions of the bout with relentless takedowns, suffocating top pressure, and submission threats. It was one of the few times du Plessis looked physically overwhelmed inside the Octagon.
The scary part is that Chimaev may still be improving rapidly. Reports continue surfacing about him bringing in Olympic-level wrestlers, investing heavily into his camps, and becoming physically larger and stronger since winning the title.
There are even discussions about him eventually moving to light heavyweight.
Why Strickland is more dangerous than people think
This is not the same stylistic matchup Chimaev had against du Plessis. Strickland is arguably better at scrambling back to his feet. His ability to instantly stand up, hand fight, and refuse to settle underneath opponents could create much harder work for Chimaev over five rounds.
That matters because failed takedowns drain enormous amounts of energy. Strickland also brings a style that can become frustrating late in fights. His jab, teep kicks, pressure boxing, and defensive awareness allow him to slowly wear opponents down while constantly forcing them to react.
The cardio factor could become huge if this reaches championship rounds. Even in the du Plessis fight, Chimaev noticeably slowed during portions of the later rounds after wrestling heavily throughout the contest.
If Strickland survives the early storm, forces extended scrambles, and makes Chimaev continuously wrestle, the fight could become much more competitive late.
One area remains largely untested. Strickland is excellent at getting back to his feet, but very few middleweights have been able to hold him down consistently long enough to truly attack submissions. Chimaev almost certainly will.
Keys to victory
Chimaev
- Force wrestling exchanges immediately
- Maintain top pressure
- Mix striking into takedown entries
- Attack submissions during scrambles
Strickland
- Defend early takedowns
- Force Chimaev into deep waters
- Pressure with jab and teeps and alternate with power shots
- Stay aggressive offensively instead of only reacting
UFC 328 main event Final prediction
Khamzat Chimaev defeats Sean Strickland by third-round submission or GNP TKO
Strickland has a better chance than many people believe. His cardio, scrambling ability, and striking pressure could create serious problems if Chimaev slows down after the first few rounds. The champion may not dominate as cleanly as the betting odds suggest.
Still, Chimaev simply feels like a different level of athlete right now. The wrestling pressure, physicality, and submission game eventually become too much.
My UFC 328 main event betting tip would be this: At (-575 / 1.17) odds, there is not much value in betting on the favourite. Meanwhile betting on Sean as the underdog is a bit of a wild bet. See how the first-round progresses, and that will probably tell you everything you need to know about the fight.
UFC 328 prelim picks and predictions
The UFC 328 prelims are loaded with grappler-versus-striker matchups, dangerous prospects, and several fights that feel much closer than the odds suggest.
Here are my full prelim predictions for UFC 328
Clayton Carpenter (-155 / 1.65) vs. Jose Ochoa
Clayton Carpenter (-155 / 1.65) vs. Jose Ochoa (+130 / 2.30)
This is a another striker-versus-grappler matchup.
Carpenter’s wrestling pressure and aggressive top game should create problems for Ochoa, especially considering Ochoa has struggled defending takedowns in previous fights.
Ochoa is clearly the cleaner striker and carries dangerous counters, but Carpenter’s ability to catch kicks and transition directly into takedowns feels like the deciding factor.
Prediction
Clayton Carpenter by decision
Baisangur Susurkaev vs. Djorden Santos Predictions
Baisangur Susurkaev (-800 / 1.12) vs. Djorden Santos (+550 / 6.50)
Susurkaev enters as one of the biggest favorites on the entire card.
Santos has some tools offensively, especially the jab and body work, but his footwork and defensive reactions leave openings against fast counter punchers. Susurkaev should eventually time him cleanly as the fight progresses.
Prediction
Baisangur Susurkaev by third-round KO
Pat Sabatini vs. William Gomis Predictions
Odds: Pat Sabatini (-210 / 1.48) vs. William Gomis (+175 / 2.75)
One of the toughest fights on the prelims to predict.
Sabatini has the grappling advantage and dangerous submissions, but Gomis is an awkward point striker with excellent range management and patience. The concern for Sabatini is whether he can consistently secure takedowns without absorbing too much damage on the way in.
Prediction
William Gomis by decision
Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio Predictions
Odds: Roman Kopylov (-185 / 1.54) vs. Marco Tulio (+154 / 2.54)
This should be one of the most entertaining striking battles on the prelims.
Tulio pressures aggressively and throws dangerous kicks, but his defensive openings are significant. Kopylov’s cleaner counter striking and left hand from southpaw should create major problems once Tulio starts rushing forward.
Prediction
Roman Kopylov by third-round KO
Jared Gordon vs. Jim Miller Predictions
Odds: Jared Gordon (-230 / 1.43) vs. Jim Miller (+190 / 2.90)
At 42 years old, Miller still carries veteran toughness and submission danger, but Gordon appears to be the more complete striker at this point.
His jab, defensive wrestling, and pace should allow him to control long stretches of the fight while avoiding dangerous grappling exchanges.
Prediction
Jared Gordon by decision
Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki Predictions
Grant Dawson (-160 / 1.63) vs. Mateusz Rebecki (+135 / 2.35)
This fight feels extremely volatile. Dawson’s wrestling and grappling remain elite, but durability concerns continue following recent knockout losses. Rebecki absorbs massive damage in fights, but his pressure and power could become overwhelming if Dawson cannot keep him controlled consistently.
Prediction
Mateusz Rebecki by second-round KO
Joel Alvarez vs. Yaroslav Amosov Predictions
Joel Alvarez (-170 / 1.59) vs. Yaroslav Amosov (+142 / 2.42)
This might be the most underrated fight on the entire card. Alvarez is dangerous offensively with knees, jabs, and submissions, but his takedown defense remains a huge concern against a grappler like Amosov. Amosov’s wrestling and submission game create a nightmare stylistic matchup if he consistently gets Alvarez to the mat.
Prediction
Yaroslav Amosov by second-round submission
Ateba Gautier vs. Ozzy Diaz Predictions
Odds: Ateba Gautier (-1600 / 1.06) vs. Ozzy Diaz (+900 / 10.00)
Gautier continues receiving favorable matchups because the UFC clearly sees major potential in him.
Diaz has decent boxing fundamentals, but he tends to stand directly in front of opponents, which is dangerous against somebody with Gautier’s speed and power.
Gautier’s physical tools remain absurd for the division, especially considering he is still only 24 years old.
Prediction
Ateba Gautier by first-round KO