Justin Gaethje shocked the MMA world when he handed Ilia Topuria the first loss of his professional career at UFC Freedom 250. Now that the dust has settled, Gaethje is offering a brutally honest assessment of what happened and why he believes the defeat could have lasting consequences.
Speaking on the Joe Rogan Experience, Gaethje reflected on the fight, Topuria’s mindset heading into it, and the challenges that come with suffering a first career defeat. While he stopped short of writing Topuria off, his comments suggested he believes the undefeated aura surrounding the former champion may be gone for good.
The danger of believing your own prediction
One of Gaethje’s biggest criticisms centered around Topuria’s pre-fight confidence. Before UFC Freedom 250, Topuria repeatedly predicted he would knock Gaethje out within two minutes. Gaethje said he warned him beforehand that creating such a narrow expectation could become a problem if the fight unfolded differently.
According to Gaethje, Topuria entered the fight convinced of a specific outcome. When that outcome failed to materialize, the pressure to force a finish increased with every passing minute.
That theory matches what unfolded inside the cage. Topuria lost the opening round, suffered significant damage around his eye, and found himself facing adversity he had rarely experienced in the UFC. Rather than settling into a five-round fight, he appeared determined to create the finish he had promised.
The second-round mistake
The turning point at the end of the second round remains one of the most debated moments of the fight.
After landing crushing body shots that visibly hurt Gaethje, Topuria swarmed for the finish. Instead of continuing to attack on the feet, he followed Gaethje to the ground and aggressively chased submissions.
Gaethje believes those body shots forced Topuria into an all-out sprint that his cardio could not match. His coach Trevor Wittman took it a step further, arguing that Topuria’s entire approach was influenced by his belief that the fight would end early. Rather than thinking about managing five rounds, he committed everything to securing the finish in that moment.
Topuria emptied the tank, but Gaethje survived. By the third round, the momentum had completely shifted.
Experience mattered
Joe Rogan and Wittman both pointed to something that cannot be replicated in training: experience in chaos.
Gaethje has spent years fighting through adversity. He has been knocked out, submitted, dropped, cut, and pushed to the brink multiple times against elite competition.
Topuria, despite being a two-division champion, had rarely been forced into those kinds of situations.
Gaethje’s ability to stay composed after the body shots may have been the most impressive part of the entire fight. While hurt badly, he made smart defensive decisions, survived dangerous submission attempts, and waited for the momentum to swing back in his favor.
Has Topuria lost his aura?
The most interesting part of the discussion was when Gaethje compared the situation to Tony Ferguson. He seems to believe that he might have broken Topuria’s aura of invincibility, the same way he did when he defeated Tony Ferguson.
He argued that beating a seemingly unstoppable fighter changes how future opponents view them. Once someone proves the boogeyman can be beaten, the fear disappears.
Before UFC Freedom 250, many fighters viewed Topuria as nearly unbeatable. Now they have seen him lose rounds, get tired, struggle through adversity, and ultimately get finished. According to Gaethje, that may be Topuria’s biggest challenge moving forward.
“I broke his identity. I did the same thing to Tony Ferguson. When you show the world how to beat fighters that look unbeatable it changes how future opponents will perceive them. His opponents will have confidence now because they know he’s beatable.”
Is Gaethje right?
Still, there is a major difference between Topuria’s situation and the examples Gaethje referenced.
Tony Ferguson was 36 years old when his losing streak began. Anderson Silva was 38 when he suffered his famous knockout loss to Chris Weidman. Topuria is only 29.
He remains one of the most dangerous boxers in MMA, possesses elite power, and has already proven capable of bouncing back from adversity earlier in his career. His comeback knockout win over Jai Herbert remains one of the best examples.
The bigger question is whether Topuria adjusts mentally.
- Will he approach future fights expecting five hard rounds instead of an early finish?
- Can he remain patient when things do not go according to plan?
Those answers may determine whether this loss becomes a temporary setback or the moment that permanently changed the trajectory of his career.
What comes next?
Gaethje made it clear he has no interest in an immediate rematch. In his view, Topuria needs to earn another title shot by defeating top contenders first. Names like Paddy Pimblett and Benoit Saint-Denis were mentioned as potential next opponents.
As for Gaethje, retirement is not on the table. The former lightweight champion said he still plans to compete and does not feel that his career is over yet.
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