Rafael Fiziev returns home looking to revive his lightweight career, but standing across from him is one of the division’s fastest-rising finishers. Manuel Torres has bulldozed his way through the rankings with explosive first-round stoppages, while Fiziev finds himself trying to snap another losing stretch after facing nothing but elite competition.
With both men sitting at -110 odds, this is one of the closed fights to call on the card.
Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres odds
Rafael Fiziev: -110 (1.91)
Manuel Torres: -110 (1.91)
The betting market sees this as a true coin flip, and it’s easy to understand why. Fiziev has the more accomplished résumé, but Torres enters with all the momentum.
Rafael Fiziev path to victory
Fiziev remains one of the cleanest strikers in the lightweight division. His Muay Thai is elite. He switches stances effortlessly, attacks every level, throws devastating body kicks, and owns excellent takedown defense. Technically, there are very few lightweights that can match him when everything is flowing.
The question isn’t skill. It’s durability and timing.
Four losses in his last five fights look concerning, but context matters. Those defeats came against Justin Gaethje twice, Mateusz Gamrot, and Maurício Ruffy. That’s arguably the toughest run any lightweight has faced over the past few years.
If Fiziev survives the early storm, slows Torres down with body work and leg kicks, and forces this into the championship rounds, his experience could become the deciding factor.
Manuel Torres path to victory
Torres doesn’t give opponents time to settle; everything he throws carries bad intentions.
Whether it’s punches, knees, elbows, or submissions, Torres constantly looks to create chaos. Almost all of his victories have come inside the opening round, and he has quickly established himself as one of the division’s most dangerous finishers.
His recent wins over Drew Dober and Grant Dawson showed that his power translates against high-level opposition.
While Ignacio Bahamondes exposed some defensive holes with straight punches, Torres has looked noticeably tighter with his boxing since then. He’s still explosive, but now he appears more controlled entering exchanges.
That makes him even more dangerous.
Keys to victory
Rafael Fiziev
- Survive the opening five minutes.
- Attack Torres’ body and lead leg.
- Force a technical striking battle instead of a firefight.
Manuel Torres
- Pressure early before Fiziev finds his rhythm.
- Mix striking with opportunistic grappling.
- Capitalize on every opening instead of allowing the fight to become tactical.
Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres prediction
This prediction came down to one question. Can Fiziev survive the early violence?
Technically, I still believe Fiziev is the superior striker. His movement, kick selection, and defensive wrestling give him plenty of ways to win this fight over 25 minutes.
But Torres simply feels like he’s arriving at the perfect moment. His confidence is sky-high, his finishing instincts are among the best in the division, and every exchange carries genuine knockout danger.
I expect Torres to show slightly more patience than usual because this is his first scheduled five-round fight in the UFC. Rather than emptying the gas tank immediately, he’ll likely spend the opening round finding his range before increasing the pressure.
Eventually, I think that pressure pays off.
Rafael Fiziev vs Manuel Torres prediction: Manuel Torres defeats Rafael Fiziev via TKO (Round 2).
Best bet: Manuel Torres Moneyline (-110 / 1.91)
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ (3/5)