Amanda Lemos has spent years fighting near the top of the UFC strawweight division. Now, at 39, the former title challenger finds herself on the other side of one of the UFC’s favorite matchmaking formulas: established veteran against surging young contender. Here is my Amanda Lemos vs. Alexia Thainara prediction.
A classic veteran vs prospect matchup
Alexia Thainara is 11 years younger, riding a five-fight winning streak and already ranked #12. After UFC wins over Molly McCann, Loma Lookboonmee and Bruna Brasil, the Brazilian prospect gets by far the biggest test of her career against the #8-ranked Lemos.
The bookmakers clearly believe the changing of the guard is coming. Thainara opened around -165 but has been hammered all the way to approximately -250 (1.40), while Lemos has drifted out to roughly +200 (3.00).
I agree that Thainara should be favored. But at this price, is the market getting a little too comfortable with a prospect who has never faced anyone remotely as dangerous as Lemos?
Amanda Lemos vs. Alexia Thainara prediction cheat sheet
| Prediction | Pick |
| Pick | Alexia Thainara |
| Method | Unanimous Decision |
| Confidence | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ |
| Best Bet | Alexia Thainara by Decision (+100 to +110) |
Best betting sites for Amanda Lemos vs. Alexia Thainara
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Amanda Lemos vs. Alexia Thainara odds
| Fighter | American odds | Decimal odds |
| Alexia Thainara | -250 | 1.40 |
| Amanda Lemos | +200 | 3.00 |
This is one of the more interesting UFC betting line movements on the card. Thainara opened around -165, while Lemos could initially be found near +140. Money has poured in on the younger Brazilian, turning what began as a relatively competitive line into a clear favorite-underdog matchup.
It is not difficult to understand why. Lemos has lost back-to-back fights against Tatiana Suarez and Gillian Robertson, two opponents capable of forcing her into prolonged grappling exchanges. She has now lost three of her last four overall.
Thainara, meanwhile, is trending in completely the opposite direction. Still, -250 is a serious price for someone taking such a significant jump in competition.
The prop UFC betting market expects a longer fight. Over 2.5 rounds is approximately -215, while the fight to go the distance is around -174. Thainara by decision, available around +100 to +110, is also attracting considerable action.
Amanda Lemos: Still the most dangerous striker Thainara has faced
It is easy to look at Lemos’ age and recent record and assume she is ready to be replaced. That could be a mistake. Lemos is 39 and has lost two straight, but those defeats came against Gillian Robertson and Tatiana Suarez. Before that, she comfortably beat Iasmin Lucindo, while her recent résumé also includes a victory over Mackenzie Dern.
More importantly, Thainara has never faced a striker with Lemos’ combination of explosiveness and raw power. Lemos is capable of making opponents pay for very small defensive mistakes. She does not need a long combination or extended exchange. One clean counter can completely change a round.
That matters because Thainara is hittable. The 28-year-old has plenty of confidence on the feet, but she can leave openings while attacking. Against her previous opponents, she has largely been able to get away with it because of her athleticism and physical advantages.
Lemos is arguably the strongest and most explosive opponent Thainara has faced, and certainly the most dangerous puncher. I would not be surprised whatsoever if Lemos hurts or even drops Thainara at some point.
Alexia Thainara: Is the next Brazilian contender ready?
Thainara enters with a 14-1 record and five consecutive victories. Her UFC run has included wins over Molly McCann, Loma Lookboonmee and Bruna Brasil, with the McCann victory particularly impressive as she secured a first-round rear-naked choke.
But this is a massive jump. For the first time, Thainara is facing a proven top-10 opponent and former UFC title challenger. Lemos has shared the Octagon with Zhang Weili, Tatiana Suarez, Mackenzie Dern, Virna Jandiroba and Gillian Robertson.
Thainara simply hasn’t operated at that level yet. However, there are several reasons I believe she passes the test. The first is the 11-year age difference. Thainara is entering her athletic prime at 28, while Lemos is attempting to remain among the strawweight elite at 39.
Thainara brings pace, physicality and cardio, and she should have the advantage in prolonged grappling exchanges. Even if Lemos stuffs the first few takedowns, Thainara can continue forcing her to work. And that leads to the biggest issue for Lemos.
Can Lemos stay out of bad grappling positions?
Lemos actually has decent takedown defense. The problem throughout her career has sometimes been what happens after the initial wrestling exchange.
She has a tendency to make questionable decisions in scrambles, chase positions she doesn’t need or voluntarily engage in grappling when getting back to striking range would be the safer option.
We saw the danger against Virna Jandiroba, who eventually submitted her. There were similar moments against Robertson. Lemos had some success defending and reversing positions, only to make decisions that allowed Robertson to regain control.
Against Thainara, that could prove costly. I can envision Lemos stuffing an early takedown, creating separation and landing something heavy enough to make anyone holding a Thainara ticket nervous.
But Thainara doesn’t necessarily need to dominate every wrestling exchange. She needs to win one important scramble. If she gets Lemos underneath her, her youth, strength and physicality should make it difficult for the 39-year-old to continuously work back to her feet. Every grappling exchange should also take something out of Lemos’ gas tank.
What happens if Lemos hurts Thainara early?
This is the question preventing me from treating Thainara as a safe -250 favorite. We haven’t seen Thainara deal with this level of striking threat before.
Lemos could crack her early. She could force Thainara to become more cautious with her entries. She could even steal the first round simply by landing the cleaner and more damaging shots while defending enough takedowns.
There is also a possibility that Thainara’s aggression gets her into trouble. But Lemos needs to maintain that threat while dealing with a younger opponent constantly pushing the pace. At 39, after consecutive fights against Suarez and Robertson, I don’t trust her to consistently win those physical exchanges for 15 minutes. Thainara can afford for this fight to be difficult early, I expect her youth to allow her to recover even though she might get hurt and hold onto her opponent in a messy scramble. Lemos, meanwhile probably cannot afford for it to become difficult late.
Amanda Lemos vs. Alexia Thainara prediction
This feels like a passing-of-the-torch matchup, but I don’t expect Thainara to simply run through Lemos.
The biggest reason is Lemos’ recent experience against elite grapplers. Her last two fights came against Gillian Robertson and Tatiana Suarez, and while she lost both by unanimous decision, neither was able to submit her. That is significant considering the level of grappling she faced in those matchups.
Thainara has submission ability, but expecting her to finish a veteran who just survived 15 minutes with both Robertson and Suarez feels overly ambitious. Her own recent results also point toward the scorecards. After submitting Molly McCann in the first round, Thainara went the full distance in consecutive victories over Loma Lookboonmee and Bruna Brasil.
I still expect Thainara’s youth, athleticism, pace and grappling to be the difference. Lemos should have dangerous moments on the feet and could make the early rounds competitive, but Thainara should increasingly dictate where the fight takes place and spend enough time in control to bank rounds.
Lemos is difficult to put away, and Thainara has shown she doesn’t need a finish to dominate a fight. Over three rounds, I expect the younger Brazilian to do more work, win the grappling exchanges and earn a clear victory on the scorecards.
Amanda Lemos vs. Alexia Thainara prediction: Alexia Thainara by Unanimous decision