Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat Prediction & Odds

The heavyweights take center stage when Steven “Concrete” Asplund meets Guilherme “Kong” Pat at UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld on August 8, 2026. Here is my full Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat prediction.

Two heavyweights coming off a loss

Both men enter this matchup looking to rebound from their first UFC defeats. Asplund dropped a unanimous decision to Vitor Petrino in March, while Pat suffered the first loss of his professional career in a majority decision against Thomas Petersen in April.

The records are similar, but the betting market sees a fairly clear favorite. Asplund has been backed heavily during fight week, and there are some good reasons for that. His pressure, durability and finishing power could become increasingly difficult for Pat to deal with as this fight progresses.

Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat prediction cheat sheet

Pick	Steven Asplund
Method	KO/TKO, Round 3
Confidence	⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Best Bet	Steven Asplund by KO/TKO (+140)

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Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat odds

Fighter	Odds	Decimal odds
Steven Asplund	-300	1.33
Guilherme Pat	+240	3.40

Asplund opened closer to the -250 range before being pushed toward -300 and even shorter at some UFC betting sites. Pat, meanwhile, has drifted from around +200 to +240 and beyond. That makes Asplund a fairly substantial favorite for a heavyweight fight between two relatively inexperienced UFC fighters.

The method-of-victory market is where things become more interesting. Asplund by KO/TKO is available around +140, while a first-round Asplund finish sits closer to +400. Pat by KO/TKO offers a much bigger +550 price.

However, there is also an argument for this fight lasting longer than the knockout percentages suggest. Both men went the full three rounds in their most recent appearances, with the fight to go to a decision priced around +170.

Read my other UFC predictions here.

Steven Asplund: Pressure, power and durability

Asplund enters with a 7-2 record and has already shown why he is an intriguing addition to the UFC heavyweight division. Before losing to Petrino, “Concrete” had put together four consecutive stoppage victories. He stopped Hammer Morton in the third round, Raiden Kovacs in the second and then demolished Anthony Guarascio in just 16 seconds on the Contender Series. His UFC debut against Sean Sharaf produced another finish, this time in the second round.

There is not much mystery surrounding what Asplund wants to do. He moves forward, forces exchanges and tries to turn fights into uncomfortable heavyweight scraps. He is surprisingly quick for his size, particularly with his hands, even if his movement is more functional than technically sophisticated.

That approach does create openings. Petrino demonstrated that a mobile opponent can make Asplund work extremely hard to close distance. Asplund struggled with Petrino’s movement and was unable to consistently force the kind of exchanges he wanted. That is particularly relevant here because Pat is much happier operating from the outside.

The difference could be what happens once Asplund finally gets into his preferred range. Asplund appears comfortable being uncomfortable. He can absorb shots, continue pushing forward and become more effective once a fight turns messy. Four of his last five victories have come via TKO, including stoppages in the first, second and third rounds. That ability to grow into fights could be crucial against Pat.

Guilherme Pat: Can he maintain distance for three rounds?

Pat’s route to victory looks very different. The Brazilian is 6-1 and suffered his first professional defeat against Thomas Petersen in April. Before that, he had won his UFC debut against Allen Frye by unanimous decision.

Pat generally prefers a cleaner fight. He works behind his jab, moves around the outside and tries to prevent opponents from getting comfortable in boxing range. That could give Asplund problems early.

We already saw Petrino frustrate Asplund with movement, and Pat has the tools to employ a similar strategy. If he can repeatedly make Asplund reset, land the jab and punish him as he comes forward, the underdog could bank the opening round. The problem is maintaining that approach.

Pat has shown signs of slowing as fights progress, and this is exactly the kind of opponent who can make that fatigue significantly worse. Constantly circling away from a heavyweight walking you down requires both physical and mental energy.

Asplund doesn’t necessarily need to dominate the first five minutes. He needs to keep Pat working. There is also an interesting familiarity factor here. Asplund was in Thomas Petersen’s corner when Petersen fought Pat in April. That means Asplund’s team has already prepared specifically for Pat’s style, studied his tendencies and watched him compete from cageside.

That does not guarantee anything, but it is useful preparation ahead of a matchup where figuring out Pat’s movement is one of Asplund’s biggest challenges.

What happens if Asplund can close the distance?

This is the key question. Pat could look very good early. His jab and movement are exactly the type of weapons that have caused Asplund problems before, and it would not be surprising to see the Brazilian win the opening round. But can he maintain that distance once Asplund continues marching forward?

Asplund’s biggest advantages in this matchup may be durability and his willingness to keep fighting through exhaustion and adversity. Even when his pace slows, he remains willing to bite down on the mouthpiece and exchange.

Pat is less convincing in that kind of fight. As the cage begins to feel smaller and both men become tired, there should be more exchanges in boxing range. That increasingly favors Asplund. He carries serious power, throws combinations and has already demonstrated that his finishing threat remains dangerous beyond the opening round.

Pat’s best chance may be to build an early lead and make Asplund chase him for the entire fight. The longer he is forced to stand his ground, however, the more this matchup shifts toward the favorite.

Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat prediction

I am siding with Asplund, but I don’t necessarily expect him to look like a -300 favorite from the opening bell. Pat has a legitimate opportunity to frustrate him early. His outside movement and jab could make Asplund look slow and predictable during the first round, particularly considering how much trouble Petrino’s movement caused him.

The difference should emerge as the fight progresses. Asplund is the more durable fighter, the more dangerous finisher and, most importantly, the fighter I trust more once both heavyweights become tired. He does not need a technically clean fight to succeed. In fact, the uglier and more exhausting this becomes, the more I favor him.

I expect Pat to start well before Asplund gradually closes the distance more consistently. By the second half of the fight, Pat should have fewer opportunities to comfortably circle away, creating the mid-range exchanges Asplund wants.

At -300, I don’t love laying the price on Asplund’s moneyline. The better value is on the method and timing. I’ll take Pat to survive the early pressure but eventually wilt as Asplund continues to pour it on.

Official Steven Asplund vs. Guilherme Pat prediction: Steven Asplund by third-round KO/TKO.

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