Islam Makhachev makes the first defense of his UFC welterweight title against Ian Machado Garry in one of the most technically fascinating fights the UFC can make right now. Here is my official Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry prediction.
Why this fight is so intriguing
Between them, Makhachev and Garry own a combined record of 45-2. Makhachev enters at 28-1 after moving up to welterweight and taking the title from Jack Della Maddalena, while Garry is 17-1 after responding to his first professional defeat with consecutive decision victories over Carlos Prates and Belal Muhammad.
The champion is understandably a significant favorite, but the matchup may be considerably more competitive than the odds suggest. Garry has the size, movement, takedown defense and fight IQ to make Makhachev work for everything.
Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry odds
Makhachev opened around -280 but has since been pushed as high as -350 to -390. Garry opened near +230 and is now available around +260 to +280.
| Fighter | Moneyline |
| Islam Makhachev | -350 to -390 |
| Ian Machado Garry | +260 to +280 |
That is a substantial UFC odds move toward Makhachev. At -350, the implied probability is approximately 77.8%. At -390, that rises to almost 80%. The market is essentially asking bettors to pay a premium for Makhachev’s wrestling advantage. That makes his method-of-victory markets much more interesting.
Makhachev by decision is priced at +135, while a submission victory sits around +210. Garry is +450 to win by decision and a massive +1100 to win by KO/TKO. The over 4.5 rounds is -154, while the fight to go the distance is -138. Those numbers make sense considering Garry has never been stopped in his professional career. He is not known as a finisher either.
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Islam Makhachev: Can the champion control the bigger man?
Makhachev’s move to welterweight could hardly have gone better. After defending the lightweight championship four times, he vacated the belt and jumped to 170 pounds. His welterweight debut ended with a dominant five-round unanimous decision over Jack Della Maddalena to capture another UFC title.
Now comes a completely different challenge. Garry is a huge welterweight with excellent movement, good takedown defense and the ability to fight comfortably from long range. Makhachev will not have the same physical dimensions that Shavkat Rakhmonov possessed when he fought Garry.
Rakhmonov was able to use his physicality to repeatedly force Garry against the cage. Despite landing relatively few takedowns, he accumulated huge amounts of control time and prevented Garry from establishing his preferred long-range striking game.
Makhachev can potentially follow that blueprint, but in a different way. He may not be able to physically bully Garry against the fence quite as easily, but he is a significantly more sophisticated wrestler. His chain wrestling, body locks, trips and ability to transition between attacks give Garry a completely different puzzle to solve.
Getting Garry down, however, may be more difficult than keeping him there. Makhachev has occasionally had to work hard for takedowns against elite opposition. Dustin Poirier successfully defended several attempts, while Alexander Volkanovski also showed that intelligent footwork, scrambling and defensive wrestling can make the champion work.
Garry is considerably bigger than both men. If Makhachev gets a clean takedown and establishes five or ten seconds of solid top position, Garry could be in serious trouble. Makhachev’s ability to settle into half guard, attack the back and control opponents from the top is on another level. The real battle could be everything that happens before that position is established.
Ian Machado Garry: Better than the odds suggest?
Garry’s only professional defeat might actually provide the strongest argument for giving him a chance here. He entered his fight with Rakhmonov as a significant underdog and became the first fighter to take the unbeaten contender the distance. More importantly, it was competitive.
Garry lost 48-47 on all three scorecards and produced arguably the most dangerous moment of the fight when he took Rakhmonov’s back and threatened a rear-naked choke. There was plenty to like. There was also one major concern.
Garry allowed Rakhmonov to control him against the fence for long stretches without producing enough offense of his own. His cautious approach is normally one of his greatest strengths. He rarely gives opponents easy counters, manages distance extremely well and doesn’t unnecessarily expose himself.
Against Makhachev, that patience could become a problem. A quiet round in which Garry lands a few kicks and jabs can suddenly become a Makhachev round after one takedown or 60 seconds of cage control. Garry cannot afford to surrender minutes.
Since losing to Rakhmonov, however, he has responded exactly as you would want from a title challenger. He defeated Carlos Prates over five rounds before earning another unanimous decision against former welterweight champion Belal Muhammad. His record now stands at 17-1. And stylistically, he has several weapons that could frustrate Makhachev.
Garry is long, difficult to pressure, defensively responsible and comfortable kicking from the outside. He also owns an 80% takedown-defense rate and carries a four-inch reach advantage into this matchup. Makhachev has never faced this exact combination of size and style at welterweight.
What happens when Makhachev gets Garry down?
This is the key question. There is a difference between defending a takedown and surviving once Makhachev has established top position. Garry has shown good anti-grappling throughout his UFC career. Against Rakhmonov, he was also able to work back to his feet after being taken down.
But Makhachev’s control is different. If Garry is taken down but immediately creates a scramble, gets onto his knees or reaches the fence, I trust him to make Makhachev work extremely hard to keep him there.
If Makhachev completes the takedown and immediately settles into a dominant position, I trust the champion. That first five or ten seconds after the takedown could determine entire rounds.
Garry cannot simply close his guard and accept bottom position while waiting for an opportunity. Against Makhachev, two minutes underneath the champion can be enough to lose a close round. He needs to scramble immediately.
The striking battle favors Garry, but perhaps not by enough
Purely as a striker, I favor Garry. His length, footwork and kicking game should give Makhachev problems at distance. But this isn’t necessarily a matchup where Garry’s striking advantage produces huge amounts of damage.
Both fighters are comfortable operating patiently from the outside. Makhachev has developed into a very capable kickboxer and doesn’t need to recklessly pressure Garry. He can kick from range, stay defensively responsible and wait for opportunities to change levels.
That could create several extremely close rounds. If very little separates them on the feet, a late takedown, clinch sequence or minute of control could be enough to give Makhachev the round.
That is where Garry’s low-volume style worries me. He cannot allow Makhachev to bank rounds simply by doing slightly more. He needs to hurt and possibly finish Makhachev, and that is something he rarely does!
Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry prediction
Almost everyone is picking Islam for this fight, and that is what is driving the the moneyline down. I expect Garry to have considerable success defending takedowns, particularly early. His size and movement should make it difficult for Makhachev to consistently close distance, and Garry should have the cleaner striking when the fight remains at range.
But over 25 minutes, Makhachev only needs a handful of successful grappling sequences. One takedown can decide a close round. A minute against the cage can decide another. And that is ultimately where I give the champion the advantage.
Garry’s tendency to remain patient and accept low-output stretches hurt him against Rakhmonov. Against Makhachev, it could cost him another razor-close decision.
I don’t expect Makhachev to dominate him. I don’t expect Garry to get run over on the ground. In fact, I would not be surprised if this is 2-2 entering the championship round. But Makhachev is simply too reliable at winning the small battles that decide close fights.
Islam Makhachev vs. Ian Machado Garry prediction: Islam Makhachev by unanimous decision, potentially 48-47.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆
Is it worth your bet?
Making a UFC prediction for this one is easy, but the UFC betting angle is more complicated. I agree that the Dagestani deserves to be favorite, but is laying -350 to -390 on Makhachev in a matchup this competitive worth the risk. Garry at +260 to +280 is clearly the more attractive moneyline price if you want to play either fighter straight.
For a Makhachev bet, the decision prop at +135 makes considerably more sense. Garry has never been finished, has excellent takedown defense and has already survived 25 minutes with Rakhmonov. And Islam fought overly conservatively in his welterweight debut. Makhachev should win, but getting Garry out of there is another question entirely.
| Prediction | Pick |
| Winner | Islam Makhachev |
| Method | Unanimous Decision |
| Best Bet | Makhachev by Decision (+135) |
| Underdog Value | Ian Machado Garry ML (+260 to +280) |
| Rounds Lean | Fight Goes to Decision (-138) |