UFC Vegas 119 is headlined by a fascinating flyweight rematch between former RIZIN rivals Manel Kape and Kyoji Horiguchi.
The card also features several rising prospects looking to take a major step forward, including Navajo Stirling and Murtazali Magomedov, while veterans such as Ion Cutelaba and Andre Fili attempt to derail the hype trains.
Here are my full predictions for the card.
UFC Vegas 119 Predictions Cheat Sheet
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*Disclaimer: All predictions, picks, odds analysis, and betting opinions expressed in this article are for entertainment purposes only. There are no guaranteed outcomes. Always conduct your own research before placing any wager and never bet more than you can afford to lose. Please gamble responsibly.
Main card
| Fight | Pick | Method | Confidence |
| Manel Kape vs Kyoji Horiguchi | Kyoji Horiguchi | Unanimous Decision | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ |
| Ion Cutelaba vs Navajo Stirling | Navajo Stirling | TKO Round 2 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ |
| Christian Rodriguez vs Hyder Amil | Christian Rodriguez | Unanimous Decision | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ |
| Melsik Baghdasaryan vs Murtazali Magomedov | Murtazali Magomedov | Submission Round 2 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ |
| Vinicius Oliveira vs Andre Fili | Andre Fili | Submission Round 2 | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ |
Prelims
| Fight | Pick | Method | Confidence |
| Andre Lima vs Kevin Borjas | Andre Lima | Unanimous Decision | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ |
| Bia Mesquita vs Melissa Mullins | Bia Mesquita | Submission Round 1 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo | Mitch Raposo | Unanimous Decision | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ |
| Gaston Bolanos vs Michael Aswell Jr. | Michael Aswell Jr. | Unanimous Decision | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ |
| Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos | Luana Santos | Split Decision | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ |
| Leon Shahbazyan vs Levan Chokheli | Levan Chokheli | KO/TKO Round 1 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ |
| Shane Collins vs Otari Tanzilovi | Shane Collins | Unanimous Decision | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ |
Best bets
🥇 Bia Mesquita by Submission
Mesquita owns one of the strongest grappling backgrounds in MMA and continues to improve on the feet. If this fight hits the mat, the gap in grappling should become apparent quickly.
🥈 Murtazali Magomedov by Submission
Baghdasaryan is dangerous on the feet, but grappling has consistently been the weakest part of his game. Magomedov has multiple ways to get the fight where he wants it.
🥉 Christian Rodriguez Moneyline
Rodriguez has advantages in technical striking, defensive wrestling, and overall fight IQ. His style is built to neutralize pressure-heavy opponents like Amil.
Upset alerts
🚨 Kyoji Horiguchi (+130 / 2.30)
Horiguchi already owns a win over Kape and remains one of the most complete flyweights in the world. His wrestling and movement give him several paths to victory.
🚨 Andre Fili (+225 / 3.25)
Fili’s size, reach, experience, and wrestling could expose some of the unanswered questions surrounding Oliveira’s move to featherweight.
🚨 Mitch Raposo (+150 / 2.50)
Nascimento is a dangerous submission specialist, but Raposo appears to have advantages in both boxing and wrestling if he can keep the fight standing.
Main event: Manel Kape vs. Kyoji Horiguchi prediction
Odds: Manel Kape -165 (1.61) | Kyoji Horiguchi +130 (2.30)
The first fight took place nearly nine years ago, with Horiguchi submitting Kape in RIZIN. Kape has improved tremendously since then and now possesses some of the most dangerous power in the flyweight division. His recent knockout victories over Brandon Royval and Asu Almabayev showcased how lethal he can be.
The problem is that Horiguchi remains one of the most complete fighters at 125 pounds. He owns advantages in movement, wrestling, grappling versatility, and overall experience in championship fights. Kape will have dangerous moments throughout the contest, but Horiguchi has more ways to win and should be able to bank rounds with his movement and takedowns.
Prediction: Kyoji Horiguchi via Unanimous Decision – Full prediction here
Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling prediction
Odds: Ion Cutelaba +240 (3.40) | Navajo Stirling -300 (1.33)
Cutelaba remains one of the division’s most dangerous gatekeepers. His wrestling, aggression, and submission game make him a threat against any prospect.
However, Stirling appears to be a difficult stylistic matchup for him. The City Kickboxing product uses his 6-foot-4 frame exceptionally well, fights behind a sharp jab, and has developed impressive takedown defense. If Cutelaba cannot consistently wrestle, he will be forced into a striking battle against the cleaner and more technical fighter.
Prediction: Navajo Stirling via Round 2 TKO – Full Prediction here
Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil prediction
Odds: Christian Rodriguez -185 (1.54) | Hyder Amil +155 (2.55)
Both men enter on two-fight losing streaks and badly need a win.
Amil’s pressure and aggression make him dangerous, but Rodriguez has built a reputation as one of the UFC’s best prospect killers. His technical boxing, defensive wrestling, and ability to control the pace of fights should allow him to frustrate Amil throughout three rounds.
Prediction: Christian Rodriguez via Unanimous Decision – Full Prediction here
Melsik Baghdasaryan vs. Murtazali Magomedov prediction
Odds: Melsik Baghdasaryan +255 (3.55) | Murtazali Magomedov -315 (1.32)
Baghdasaryan is one of the sharper kickboxers in the featherweight division and could absolutely make this competitive if the fight remains standing.
The concern is his grappling. Magomedov possesses five knockouts and five submissions, making him a threat in every phase of MMA. Expect the undefeated prospect to use his striking to create openings for takedowns before eventually finding a finish on the mat.
Prediction: Murtazali Magomedov via Round 2 Submission – Full Prediction here
Vinicius Oliveira vs. Andre Fili prediction
Odds: Vinicius Oliveira -275 (1.36) | Andre Fili +225 (3.25)
Oliveira’s move to featherweight raises several questions. At bantamweight, he often relied on pressure, durability, and physicality while fighting with his hands low.
Fili presents a difficult challenge. The Team Alpha Male veteran owns a significant reach advantage, a quality jab, and enough wrestling to test areas of Oliveira’s game that were exposed by Mario Bautista. The veteran’s experience and well-rounded skill set make him a live underdog.
Prediction: Andre Fili via Round 2 Submission – Full Prediction here
Prelim picks
Andre Lima vs. Kevin Borjas prediction
Odds: Andre Lima -600 (1.17) | Kevin Borjas +450 (5.50)
Borjas has quality boxing and legitimate power, but Lima is one of the most complete flyweight prospects in the UFC. His ability to mix striking, wrestling, and grappling should allow him to gradually take over after a competitive opening round.
Prediction: Andre Lima via Decision
Bia Mesquita vs. Melissa Mullins prediction
Odds: Bia Mesquita -575 (1.17) | Melissa Mullins +425 (5.25
Mesquita continues to look like one of the most promising additions to the women’s bantamweight division. Her grappling credentials are elite, and her striking has improved enough to help her get fights to the mat.
Prediction: Bia Mesquita via Round 1 Submission
Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo prediction
Odds: Allan Nascimento -180 (1.56) | Mitch Raposo +150 (2.50)
Nascimento is dangerous whenever grappling exchanges occur, but Raposo appears to hold advantages in both boxing and wrestling. If he can keep the fight standing for extended periods, he should be able to edge the scorecards.
Prediction: Mitch Raposo via Decision
Gaston Bolanos vs. Michael Aswell Jr. prediction
Odds: Gaston Bolanos +350 (4.50) | Michael Aswell Jr. -450 (1.22)
Bolanos is dangerous at range and possesses solid kicking attacks, but Aswell’s pressure, durability, and boxing should allow him to wear the Peruvian down over three rounds.
Prediction: Michael Aswell Jr. via Decision
Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos prediction
Odds: Karol Rosa -125 (1.80) | Luana Santos +105 (2.05)
Rosa is the cleaner striker and has faced the better competition, but Santos has a clear grappling advantage. If she can consistently force clinch exchanges and secure takedowns, she should be able to control enough of the fight to get the nod.
Prediction: Luana Santos via Split Decision
Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli prediction
Odds: Leon Shahbazyan +275 (3.75) | Levan Chokheli -350 (1.29)
Chokheli enters with more experience, more proven wins, and significantly more power. Shahbazyan has submission threats, but Chokheli’s pressure and aggressive striking style should prove too much to handle.
Prediction: Levan Chokheli via Round 1 KO
Shane Collins vs. Otari Tanzilovi prediction
Odds: Shane Collins -220 (1.45) | Otari Tanzilovi +180 (2.80)
Tanzilovi is explosive and dangerous, but Collins appears to be the more polished mixed martial artist. His boxing, body work, and offensive grappling give him more ways to win rounds and control the fight.
Prediction: Shane Collins via Decision