As you might expect, the UFC Vegas 119 prelims does not feature many household names, but several intriguing prospects and veterans have important opportunities in front of them.
Undefeated grappling sensation Bia Mesquita looks to continue her rise, Andre Lima aims to strengthen his case as one of the flyweight division’s top prospects. Plus, Vinicius Oliveira’s former opponent Mitch Raposo enters as a live underdog against Allan Nascimento.
Here are my picks and predictions for every preliminary card fight.
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Shane Collins vs. Otari Tanzilovi prediction
Shane Collins vs. Otari Tanzilovi odds: Shane Collins -220 (1.45) | Otari Tanzilovi +180 (2.80)
This should be a fun fight between two prospects looking to make a statement. Tanzilovi brings an explosive kicking game and trains alongside elite talent, but he can be wild at times and leave openings during exchanges. Collins appears to be the more polished boxer. He does an excellent job working the body, throwing straight punches, and mixing levels rather than headhunting.
Collins also appears to have the edge in offensive grappling. While Tanzilovi should be able to scramble back to his feet, Collins has more ways to win rounds and should be able to land the cleaner shots throughout the fight.
Pick: Shane Collins via Decision
Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli prediction
Leon Shahbazyan vs. Levan Chokheli odds: Leon Shahbazyan +275 (3.75) | Levan Chokheli -350 (1.29)
Chokheli enters with a significant experience advantage and has already proven himself against quality opposition outside the UFC. He owns notable wins over Sabah Homasi and Roman Faraldo and carries genuine knockout power.
Shahbazyan has some intriguing submission skills and could threaten during scrambles, but Chokheli’s aggressive Muay Thai style, heavy kicks, and forward pressure should create problems. Unless Shahbazyan catches something early on the mat, Chokheli looks like the more complete and proven fighter.
Pick: Levan Chokheli via Round 1 KO
Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos prediction
Karol Rosa vs. Luana Santos odds: Karol Rosa -125 (1.80) | Luana Santos +105 (2.05)
This matchup likely comes down to one question: can Santos consistently get the fight to the ground?
Rosa remains the cleaner striker. She throws at a higher volume, has faced better competition, and should have success if the fight stays standing. Santos, however, possesses excellent judo, strong top control, and a grappling-heavy style that can frustrate opponents over three rounds.
The striking advantage belongs to Rosa, but Santos has the clearer path to victory. If she can repeatedly force clinch exchanges and secure takedowns, she should be able to bank enough control time to win a close fight.
Pick: Luana Santos via Split Decision
Gaston Bolanos vs. Michael Aswell Jr. prediction
Gaston Bolanos vs. Michael Aswell Jr. odds: Gaston Bolanos +350 (4.50) | Michael Aswell Jr. -450 (1.22)
Bolanos is a dangerous striker with a solid kicking game, but he has often struggled when opponents force him into uncomfortable fights. Michael Aswell brings relentless pressure, durable boxing, and a willingness to push a high pace for all three rounds.
The Four Corners Fight Club product should be able to pressure Bolanos behind the jab, force exchanges, and potentially mix in wrestling when opportunities present themselves. Bolanos will have moments at range, but Aswell’s pace and durability should become increasingly important as the fight progresses.
Pick: Michael Aswell Jr. via Decision
Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo prediction
Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo odds: Allan Nascimento -180 (1.56) | Mitch Raposo +150 (2.50)
This is one of the trickiest fights on the entire card.
Nascimento is arguably the most dangerous submission specialist Raposo has faced. If he gets to the back or creates a grappling scramble, the fight could end immediately. His jiu-jitsu remains his biggest weapon.
Raposo, however, appears to hold advantages in boxing and wrestling. His takedown defense has looked solid against quality opposition, and his hands are significantly cleaner than Nascimento’s. If Raposo can keep the fight standing for extended stretches, he should be able to win rounds with volume and movement.
Nascimento is dangerous for all fifteen minutes, but Raposo’s wrestling and striking should allow him to edge a competitive decision.
Pick: Mitch Raposo via Decision
Bia Mesquita vs. Melissa Mullins prediction
Bia Mesquita vs. Melissa Mullins odds: Bia Mesquita -575 (1.17) | Melissa Mullins +425 (5.25)
Mesquita continues to look like one of the most promising additions to the women’s bantamweight division.
The Brazilian world champion grappler has already shown rapid improvements in her striking while remaining one of the most dangerous submission threats in MMA. Mullins is tough and possesses respectable grappling credentials of her own, but there are levels to this game.
Mesquita’s striking is now good enough to create openings for her wrestling, and once the fight reaches the mat, she should hold a substantial advantage. Mullins may survive for a while, but avoiding grappling exchanges for an entire fight seems unlikely.
Pick: Bia Mesquita via Round 1 Submission
Andre Lima vs. Kevin Borjas prediction
Andre Lima vs. Kevin Borjas odds: Andre Lima -600 (1.17) | Kevin Borjas +450 (5.50)
Borjas is a better fighter than his record suggests. He has shared the cage with several high-level flyweights and possesses sharp boxing, a quality jab, and legitimate power.
The problem is the matchup. Lima is one of the most complete prospects in the division. He can strike, wrestle, grapple, and fight effectively in every phase of MMA. Expect Lima to attack Borjas’ lead leg early, mix in takedowns, and force Borjas to defend multiple threats throughout the fight.
Borjas should have success in the opening round, but Lima’s versatility and overall skill set should allow him to gradually take control.
Pick: Andre Lima via Decision