UFC Freedom 250 is unlike anything the sport has seen before. The UFC is bringing a championship-level card to the White House lawn, featuring title fights, rising contenders, former champions, and several intriguing betting opportunities.
At the top of the card, Ilia Topuria looks to continue his undefeated run against interim lightweight champion Justin Gaethje. Alex Pereira attempts to become the first three-division champion in UFC history when he faces Ciryl Gane.
Meanwhile Sean O’Malley returns as a heavy favorite against the dangerous and underrated Aiemann Zahabi. Before that, Mauricio Ruffy gets a career-defining opportunity against Michael Chandler, and Josh Hokit looks to continue his rapid rise at heavyweight against Derrick Lewis.
And Bo Nickal attempts to prove the hype train is still on track against Kyle Daukaus. Plus Diego Lopes faces perhaps the live-est underdog on the card in Steve Garcia.
Here are our official UFC Freedom 250 predictions.
*Disclamer: All picks and predictions are for entertainment purposes only. We cannot guarantee results.
UFC Freedom 250 Predictions Cheat Sheet
| Fight | Pick | Method | Confidence |
| Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje | Ilia Topuria | KO/TKO Round 2 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ |
| Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane | Alex Pereira | KO/TKO Round 2 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ |
| Sean O’Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi | Sean O’Malley | Unanimous Decision | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ |
| Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler | Mauricio Ruffy | KO Round 2 | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ |
| Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis | Josh Hokit | TKO Round 2 (Ground and Pound) | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ |
| Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukaus | Bo Nickal | Unanimous Decision | ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ |
| Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia | Diego Lopes | Unanimous Decision | ⭐⭐⭐☆☆ |
Best Bets
🥇 Ilia Topuria Inside the Distance
Topuria has finished Volkanovski, Holloway, and Oliveira. Even if Gaethje has success early, Topuria’s speed and precision should eventually find the finish.
🥈 Sean O’Malley Moneyline
Zahabi is a live underdog, but O’Malley’s advantages in speed, reach, and accuracy make him one of the safer favorites on the card.
🥉 Josh Hokit by KO/TKO
The wrestling advantage is significant. If Hokit gets Lewis to the ground, a ground-and-pound stoppage becomes very likely.
Upset Alerts
🚨 Steve Garcia (+136 / 2.36)
Garcia is arguably the liveliest underdog on the card. Sharp money has continued to come in on him, and his boxing and knockout power could create problems if Lopes allows this to remain a striking battle.
🚨 Kyle Daukaus (+270 / 3.70)
The betting market has shown increasing respect for Daukaus. If Nickal struggles to secure takedowns or gets drawn into prolonged striking exchanges, Daukaus has the experience to capitalize.
🚨 Justin Gaethje (+381 / 4.81)
Gaethje’s leg kicks remain the most interesting variable in the main event. If he can absorb Topuria’s early pressure and drag the fight into deeper waters, the dynamic changes dramatically.
UFC Freedom 250 Odds
| Fight | Fighter 1 | Fighter 2 |
| Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje | Ilia Topuria -490 (1.20) | Justin Gaethje +381 (4.81) |
| Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane | Alex Pereira -110 (1.91) | Ciryl Gane -110 (1.91) |
| Sean O’Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi | Sean O’Malley -430 (1.23) | Aiemann Zahabi +330 (4.30) |
| Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler | Mauricio Ruffy -600 (1.17) | Michael Chandler +450 (5.50) |
| Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis | Josh Hokit -450 (1.22) | Derrick Lewis +350 (4.50) |
| Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukaus | Bo Nickal -330 (1.30) | Kyle Daukaus +270 (3.70) |
| Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia | Diego Lopes -174 (1.57) | Steve Garcia +136 (2.36) |
Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje Prediction
Justin Gaethje’s leg kicks give him a legitimate path to success, especially if he can damage Topuria’s lead leg and force a longer fight. The biggest question is whether Gaethje can absorb Topuria’s best shots and keep moving forward, something very few analysts seem to be discussing.
If he survives the early pressure, his pace, experience, and relentless leg kicks could become major factors.
For now, Topuria continues to pass every test. His patience, elite boxing, and ability to capitalize on mistakes make him one of the most complete fighters in the sport.
For a more detailed breakdown, read our full Ilia Topuria vs Justin Gaethje prediction.
Prediction: Ilia Topuria by KO/TKO Round 2
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best Bet: Topuria inside the distance
Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane Prediction
Ciryl Gane’s movement, jab, and kicking game should allow him to find success early, but Alex Pereira possesses the perfect weapon to slow him down: calf kicks.
Gane’s entire style depends on mobility, and Pereira has repeatedly shown he can dismantle opponents by attacking the lead leg.
Once Gane’s movement begins to fade, Pereira’s pressure, fight IQ, and knockout power become increasingly difficult to deal with.
For a complete breakdown, read our full Alex Pereira vs Ciryl Gane prediction.
Prediction: Alex Pereira by KO/TKO Round 2
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Sean O’Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi Prediction
Aiemann Zahabi is a far more dangerous underdog than the odds suggest. The Tristar veteran enters on a seven-fight winning streak and brings elite coaching, durability, and a high fight IQ.
His best path to victory likely involves following a Merab Dvalishvili-style blueprint by pressuring forward, pushing O’Malley against the fence, and mixing in constant takedown attempts. The problem is that O’Malley excels at winning the moments.
While Zahabi may win minutes with volume and activity, O’Malley’s precision, range management, and ability to land the most impactful shots should stand out to the judges.
For a complete breakdown, read our full Sean O’Malley vs Aiemann Zahabi prediction.
Prediction: Sean O’Malley by Unanimous Decision
Best Bet: Sean O’Malley Moneyline
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis Prediction
Derrick Lewis still possesses the one weapon that can change any heavyweight fight: knockout power. However, the former title challenger has become increasingly reliant on landing a single fight-ending shot, while Josh Hokit appears to have advantages everywhere else.
The undefeated prospect is younger, faster, more athletic, and owns a significant wrestling edge. His victory over Curtis Blaydes showed he can survive adversity, maintain a high pace, and continue pushing forward.
Expect Hokit to pressure Lewis early, mix punches with takedowns, and avoid unnecessary exchanges on the feet. Once the fight hits the ground, the wrestling disparity should become impossible to ignore.
For a complete breakdown, read our full Josh Hokit vs Derrick Lewis prediction.
Prediction: Josh Hokit by TKO Round 2 (Ground and Pound)
Best Bet: Josh Hokit by TKO/KO
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler Prediction
Michael Chandler’s wrestling is the biggest threat to Mauricio Ruffy, but it is also the biggest reason this prediction feels straightforward. Chandler has the credentials to replicate parts of Benoit Saint Denis’ successful game plan against Ruffy, yet he rarely chooses the smart fight. Instead, he prefers chaos, pocket exchanges, and highlight-reel moments.
That approach could be disastrous against a creative striker like Ruffy, who thrives on counters, explosive attacks, and opponents who leave openings.
With the historic White House setting likely bringing out vintage Chandler, expect him to come forward aggressively and give Ruffy exactly the type of fight he wants.
For a complete breakdown, read our full Mauricio Ruffy vs Michael Chandler prediction.
Prediction: Mauricio Ruffy by KO Round 2
Best Bet: Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukaus Prediction
Kyle Daukaus is a more dangerous underdog than the odds suggest. Since returning to the UFC, he has quietly rebuilt his career with wins over Michel Pereira and Gerald Meerschaert, while betting support has steadily pushed the line closer than expected.
If the fight stays standing, Daukaus has the experience, patience, and boxing to create problems. However, this matchup ultimately comes down to one thing: wrestling. Nickal remains one of the most accomplished wrestling prospects the UFC has ever signed, and his ability to dictate where the fight takes place should allow him to gradually take control.
He does not need to dominate every exchange; he simply needs to secure takedowns, maintain top position, and avoid the mistakes that cost him against Reinier de Ridder.
For a complete breakdown, read our full Bo Nickal vs Kyle Daukaus prediction.
Prediction: Bo Nickal by Unanimous Decision
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia Prediction
Steve Garcia may be the livest underdog on the entire UFC Freedom 250 card. The surging featherweight enters on an impressive finishing streak, and sharp money has steadily pushed the betting line closer to a pick’em.
Garcia’s southpaw boxing, pressure, and knockout power give him a legitimate chance if this remains a striking battle. However, Diego Lopes has faced significantly tougher competition and possesses more paths to victory.
Whether through striking, wrestling, or submission threats, Lopes can adapt as the fight unfolds. Expect Garcia to have success early, but Lopes’ versatility should ultimately prove to be the difference.
For a complete breakdown, read our full Diego Lopes vs Steve Garcia prediction.
Prediction: Diego Lopes by Unanimous Decision
Best Bet: Diego Lopes to Win
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐