Islam Dulatov returns to action this Saturday looking to extend one of the most impressive finishing streaks in the welterweight division. Standing across from him is UFC veteran Wellington Turman, who hasn’t competed in nearly three years and enters the fight riding a three-fight losing streak. On paper, this looks like one of the biggest mismatches on the entire Abu Dhabi card. Still, every prospect eventually reaches the point where hype has to translate into consistent performances inside the Octagon. Here is my Islam Dulatov vs. Wellington Turman prediction.
When this fight was announced, my immediate reaction was simple: Dulatov by knockout. After going back through the tape, I don’t really see much that changes my opinion. I actually think the biggest questions surrounding Dulatov are legitimate. We still don’t know what his cardio looks like over three hard rounds. We haven’t seen him consistently defend takedowns against a high-level wrestler, and because every one of his wins has come inside the distance, there’s still a lot we haven’t learned about him as a prospect. The problem for Turman is that I don’t think he’s the fighter who’s going to answer any of those questions.
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Islam Dulatov vs. Wellington Turman odds: Is this one of the easiest picks on the card?
Islam Dulatov -800 (1.13) | Wellington Turman +550 (6.50)
UFC betting sites have installed Dulatov as one of the biggest favorites on the entire card, and I completely understand why. He’s riding a twelve-fight winning streak, every one of those victories has come by finish, and he’s looked like a future contender every time he’s stepped into the Octagon. Meanwhile, Turman returns after more than two-and-a-half years away from competition, having lost three consecutive fights before his lengthy layoff.
Normally, I don’t like laying this kind of UFC odds on prospects because there are usually unanswered questions. In Dulatov’s case, those questions still exist, but I don’t think this is the matchup that exposes them. If anything, this feels like the UFC giving one of its fastest-rising prospects another opportunity to build momentum.
Can Turman drag Dulatov into unfamiliar territory?
If Turman has a path to victory, it starts on the ground. He’s a Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt, and despite the recent losses, grappling has always been the strongest part of his game. If he can survive the early pressure, close the distance and force Dulatov to work from his back, we might finally get answers to some of the questions surrounding the German prospect.
The problem is getting there. Turman’s wrestling has never been elite, and that’s a major issue against someone with Dulatov’s size and striking. At 6-foot-3 with a 75-inch reach, Dulatov is enormous for the division and does an excellent job controlling range behind straight punches. Unless Turman can consistently force clinch exchanges, I think he’s going to spend most of the fight trying to find his way inside while absorbing damage.
Why Dulatov continues to pass every test
There are certain prospects who immediately look different the moment they enter the cage. That’s how I feel about Dulatov. Everything he throws is compact and technically sound. His straight right hand is one of the cleanest weapons among the UFC’s young welterweights, and he doesn’t waste movement chasing finishes. He pressures behind fundamentals, picks his shots well and carries legitimate one-punch power.
The Adam Fugitt performance only reinforced that opinion. We already knew Dulatov could finish opponents on the regional scene and on Dana White’s Contender Series, but doing it against an experienced UFC veteran showed that his power translates to a much higher level.
The UFC also seems to know exactly what it has. Dulatov has the size, the athleticism and the charisma to become a star. So this matchup feels like another opportunity to keep building that momentum.
I don’t think Turman’s improved striking changes the outcome
To Turman’s credit, his striking has improved over the years. Training alongside Alex Pereira and Glover Teixeira has clearly influenced his style. He’s become more comfortable throwing calf kicks, using the long guard and fighting behind straight punches instead of relying exclusively on his grappling. Still most wins on his record have been decisions.
I just don’t think it’s enough. Even if Turman looks sharper than he did a few years ago, he’s still facing someone who’s faster, longer and significantly more dangerous on the feet. Dulatov also throws everything with conviction. Every right hand looks like it’s trying to end the fight. Against someone returning from such a long layoff, that’s a dangerous combination.
Why I think Dulatov gets another early finish
Eventually, Dulatov is going to face someone who forces him into deep waters.I just don’t think that someone is Wellington Turman. Turman has been inactive for far too long and he enters the fight on a losing streak. Plus, stylistically he doesn’t possess the wrestling needed to consistently neutralize Dulatov’s biggest weapons. If this stays standing, I think the difference in speed, timing and power becomes obvious very quickly.
I can see Turman trying to stay patient early and look for opportunities to clinch, but I don’t think Dulatov gives him much time to settle. The jab starts landing, and he starts following up with the right hand. Eventually, Turman shells up, and Dulatov begins opening up with combinations.
Dulatov vs. Turman prediction
I still have questions about Islam Dulatov as a long-term contender. I want to see how he handles adversity. Wee need to see what happens when someone survives the first round and forces him to wrestle or defend takedowns. This will eventually determine whether he can become a legitimate title contender at 170 pounds.
I just don’t think we’re getting those answers this weekend. Everything about this matchup favors Dulatov. He’s younger, faster, more active and far more dangerous on the feet. Unless Turman finds an early submission, I think this plays out exactly the way the betting market expects.
Islam Dulatov vs. Wellington Turman prediction: Islam Dulatov defeats Wellington Turman via second-round TKO.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (4/5)