Heavyweight wrestling specialists collide when Rizvan Kuniev takes on former Bellator standout Tyrell Fortune in a matchup that could move the winner into the UFC’s top five conversation. While both men are accomplished wrestlers, I actually think this fight is decided by what happens on the feet rather than on the mat. Here is my full Rizvan Kuniev vs. Tyrell Fortune prediction and breakdown.
I picked Fortune to beat Marcin Tybura earlier this year, but I’ll be honest, I wasn’t blown away by his performance. He got the win, and that’s what matters, but I also thought Tybura looked like a diminished version of himself. Whether that was because of Fortune’s wrestling or simply Tybura showing his age is up for debate. Either way, this is a much tougher assignment. Kuniev has already proven he can hang with elite heavyweights.
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Rizvan Kuniev vs. Tyrell Fortune odds: Why is Kuniev the clear favorite?
Rizvan Kuniev -300 (1.33) | Tyrell Fortune +240 (3.40)
The betting line reflects exactly how I see this matchup. Fortune is a talented athlete with legitimate NCAA wrestling credentials, but Kuniev has already shown he can neutralize far better grapplers inside the Octagon. His victory over Jailton Almeida, where he stuffed eight takedown attempts, completely changed how I view him as a heavyweight contender.
When you combine that performance with his competitive split-decision loss against Curtis Blaydes, it’s easy to understand why the UFC bookies favor the Dagestani here.
Can Fortune wrestle with someone who shut down Jailton Almeida?
This is the biggest question entering the fight. Fortune’s best path to victory is obvious. Use his wrestling, control position, and force Kuniev to work off his back. The problem is that we’ve already watched Kuniev defend takedowns against two of the best wrestlers in the division.
If Curtis Blaydes struggled to consistently control him, and Jailton Almeida couldn’t implement his usual grappling game, I’m not convinced Fortune suddenly finds the blueprint. Even if Fortune completes an early takedown, I expect Kuniev to work back to his feet rather quickly.
Why Kuniev is simply the more complete heavyweight
I think Fortune is dangerous. He’s athletic for a heavyweight, has KOs on his record and has enough wrestling to make almost anyone uncomfortable. But I also think his offense can become predictable.
A lot of his striking revolves around loading up on the overhand right. When it lands, it’s dangerous. When it doesn’t, there aren’t always enough secondary weapons to keep opponents guessing. Kuniev, meanwhile, offers far more variety. He’s surprisingly mobile for a heavyweight. He’ll work behind the jab, while mixing body kicks, clinch knees and elbows.
Why this feels like a step down for Kuniev
That’s probably the biggest reason I’m picking him. Look at Kuniev’s recent competition: Curtis Blaydes, Jailton Almeida. Those are elite heavyweights with championship-level wrestling.
Now he faces Fortune, who is certainly dangerous but hasn’t yet shown he belongs at that level inside the UFC. Fortune deserves some benefit of the doubt because the Tybura fight was his promotional debut, and fighters often look more comfortable in their second appearance. Still, I don’t think one training camp changes the gap between these two.
Why I expect a tactical heavyweight fight
I don’t think this turns into a wild firefight. If anything, I expect a slower-paced heavyweight chess match. Both men understand each other’s wrestling well enough to avoid taking unnecessary risks, which means we’ll probably spend long stretches watching clinch exchanges, jabs and positional battles.
That type of fight heavily favors Kuniev. His output is slightly higher, his striking is more varied, and I trust his experience against elite opposition.
Rizvan Kuniev vs. Tyrell Fortune prediction
Fortune absolutely has the power to change this fight with one right hand. That’s what makes heavyweight MMA so unpredictable. Outside of that, though, I struggle to find many advantages for him.
Kuniev has already proven he can defend elite wrestling, he’s the more complete striker, and I think he’ll steadily outwork Fortune over fifteen minutes. It may not be the most exciting fight on the card, but I expect Kuniev to control the pace and win a clear decision.
Rizvan Kuniev vs. Tyrell Fortune prediction: Rizvan Kuniev defeats Tyrell Fortune via unanimous decision.
Confidence: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (4/5)